No Glory Blog: Let's Go 2014 Texas Rangers!

Gammons' leak was correct.

Slave gets: Swisher, Delmon Young (rookie), and Lima.
Randy gets: Randy Johnson and Mussina.

Slave Sucks

Sorry Slave, I told you I was going to title it that. Slave doesn't really suck but he is going to make a trade that will help him and frustrate me. He feels at this point that he is second place, and 9 games out, and doesn't have a chance to win this year. I feel at this point that I'm in third place, and 10 games out, but I still have a chance to win this year. But not after this trade.

Slave is going to send Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson, ostensibly his best two starters, over to Randy for Nick Swisher and the rights to Delmon Young. This trade has no downside to Randy's team for this season and has no upside for Slave for this season. It's a white-flag dump, and there is no way you can argue otherwise.

I'm not saying it's a bad deal. Slave will have two possible impact corner outfielders for the future. As far as this season goes, it's unbalanced. Slave did the same thing last year when he cut bait and rowed home and traded Barry Zito, Melvin Mora, and some other starters to Randy for Eric Chavez. I just wish he'd spread his largesse around the league a little more.

Luck Balancing?

Fielder     W L   pct. Pyth-W Pyth-L Pth-pct
5 Errant   62 44 .585    68    38     .645
7 Bingo's  53 53 .500    53    53     .499
1 Cursed   48 58 .453    50    56     .470
3 whisltes 45 61 .425    49    57     .461

Forster     W L   pct. Pyth-W Pyth-L Pth-pct
6 TriBonds 63 43 .594    52    54     .487
8 Highway  56 50 .528    52    54     .490
2 Burnintr 53 53 .500    59    47     .555
4 Wookies  44 62 .415    42    64     .400

Well my hopes of Luck Balancing seem to have not panned out. The TriBonds have incredibly INCREASED their wins-over-pythagorean to +11!!! while I've stayed mired in about the same hole, -6. Matt has slipped to -6 himself but is having a great season anyway. My other division rivals maintain their small bonuses of +4 and +2 while Ken and Lou continue to underperform at -2 and -4.

Scoshe offered this gem in these latest results that might have been addressed to me personally...

Run Differential: Over the years many baseball studies have been done on how 'run differential' (the difference in runs scored versus runs allowed) relates to won-loss record. Given the interest in that subject we'd like to give our thoughts on run differential, and how it compares in Scoresheet to the majors.

Certainly scoring runs is a good thing for your offense, and giving up the fewest runs possible is the top goal of your pitchers and fielders. However, in both the majors and in Scoresheet, run differential is not a perfect measure of won-loss record. Some teams simply perform better in close games (maybe they have a better late inning bullpen, or maybe they have more speed and can manufacture that one crucial run, or maybe they are just plain lucky?), while other teams are set up to simply blow out the opponents (often the teams who live and die by the HR, and so score in bunches).

In general a league's standings do roughly follow run differential. But there have been some pretty large differences between won-loss records and run differential in past major league pennant races, and also in Scoresheet races. And in Scoresheet, there are a couple of reasons why run differential is definitely a worse predictor of won-loss records than in the majors. There are a few more blowouts in Scoresheet than in the majors - use of AAA pitchers can really lead to some dismal scores! Also, in the majors, once a team gets way ahead they seem to quit trying as hard - the players want to get it over with. In Scoresheet, if your hitters are facing lousy pitching they are 'supposed' to get more hits, so they keep pounding away. Winning or losing a blow out (something like 18-2) only counts as one win or loss, but it can really distort a team's run differential.

Also, here is what I always feel may be the biggest reason for won-loss records not matching up well with overall run differential: if you have a Scoresheet team with 3 really good starting pitchers, and 2 horrible ones, you may win about 3 of 5 games, but there is a good chance your 2 lousy pitchers will lose by big scores, while your 3 good ones may be winning close games (meaning you'll have a bad run differential but a good won-loss record.) If you have a lot of HR hitters you may win a lot of blowouts, but in games where you don't hit HRs you may be losing a lot of close, low scoring affairs (meaning you'll have a good run differential but not necessarily a great record.) All of these reasons can help account for why your won-loss record can not be perfectly predicted by your runs.

Since in both Scoresheet and in the majors, it is won-loss record that determines who comes in first place, then W-L record is what you really care about. If you think your team should be winning more games then take a look at the various stats we print each week with the standings, or the 'won-loss' breakdown table we printed every two or three weeks, and see if there is some subtle things other teams are doing that you seem to be lacking in (steals, sacrifices, saves?) Winning or losing close games does involve some luck, but managerial strategies, and the kind of team you put together, do matter a lot. For instance, having no good closer can really hurt in the close one run games in the ninth inning.

Oh well, there's always next year. Maybe my "no good closer" is the difference of 17 games.