Wednesday, March 30, 2005
NL Predictions
Continuing the predictions from last week, here's a look at the NL No Glory.
NL - Kruk - Dancin' Homers
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
Can this 108-win team repeat as league champions? They had a ton of career years coincide last year: Abreu, Rolen, Edmonds, Rollins, Sheets all had their best seasons. So you would express some regression from this core. But the team also added Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, plus a lot of strong role-players (and I don't mean half-elf sorcerors) have departed in the early rounds of the draft for other teams. Let's look at the roster.
The pitching is good, with a rotation of Pedro, Sheets, Clemens and some combination of Brad Penny, Brandon Webb, Kip Wells and Woody Williams but seemingly filled with question marks. Several injuries could devastate them. The bullpen is not nearly as strong as it has been in recent years because I used early picks on minor leaguers and filling holes on the right side of the infield. But last year they won 108 with Clemens, Sheets, Smoke, and Mirrors. It seems improved from last year.
The offense is essentially unchanged except for the following:
Short-Term Outlook: D Long-Term Outlook: D
Does anyone have a dictionary? I want to look up the definition of "hopeless". Just kidding. Well...
The rotation is interesting. There are a ton of guys here who may have a good week or two, get inserted in the number one slot, and then be crap for the remainder of the season. Yes I'm looking right at Jason Marquis, Russ Ortiz, Mark Redman, Paul Wilson, and Zach Day. Derek Lowe and Tony Armas will have the usual predictable mediocrity and Randy Wolf has possible upside, possible career-ending injury potential. The bullpen is full of many non-stars.
Catching has two guys who didn't make the cut for their real-life team and Koyie Hill who will be in a platoon at best. Helton rules and Kent and Glaus will bat above average. Shortstop looks to be bad and ... FOUR outfielders?? I guess Craig Wilson counts. Pena isn't a starter so you've got some combination of Jose Guillen, Larry Walker, Jeromy Burnitz, and Wilson out there. Wow.
Last place. No help on the immediate horizon. Wow. What happened? Randy has a PhD? Maybe that's what happened.
NL - Kruk - Cholesterol Kings
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Now, I love Barry Bonds. But I kind of would have enjoyed sitting next to Carl on the couch watching the White Sox game when they interrupted to cut to Barry Bonds's press conference where he said he might not play this season. Combined with the injury to Lance Berkman, this may have killed Carl's chance this year. If Carl is within 10 games at the end of May, he will have a shot. Otherwise I think second place again is in the cards. Berkman and Bonds are just too much of the team's firepower.
The pitching has a lot of useful guys, a lot of rookies, and Mark Prior a Cy Young winner if healthy. That's a big IF and Dusty is driving that train. Behind Prior a combination of Livian, Weaver, Lieber, Morris and Suppan should be ok. Carl has some good ERA relievers too but the pitching is not going to be what carries the team.
Without Bonds and Berkman, we're looking at a three-headed catching tandem of Todd Greene, a backup, Yorvit Torrealba, a backup, and Chris Snyder, a platooner who should all have limited liveable numbers; the enigmatic Big Choi; the surprisingly good Mark Loretta; the surprisingly inconsistent Morgan Ensberg and weak Sean Burroughs; and the decent Rafael Furcal. The outfield has useful non-stars in Geoff Jenkins, Mike Cameron and Corey Patterson. That makes Mark Loretta pretty much the best hitter on the team to start out and I think that's a tough row to hoe in an 8-team fantasy league.
Carl's always got good looking future players and he would improve with a healthy full season of Berkman.
NL - Kruk - Autoexec.Batsmen
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
This might be the year Jeff gets second place. Has he ever done that before? Maybe. I'll have my intern research that out. Still, I think it's going to be a third-place finish for the A-Bmen.
Their pitching has a great one-two with Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano. Will Andy Pettitte pitch well? If so, the rotation is a plus. If not, they are counting on John Thompson and Doug Davis to continue to improve. The bullpen is unremarkable.
Catching... Paul LoDuca is servicable, Jim Thome is fantastic and Jose Vidro is expected to return to tops in the league status. Russ Branyan is cool but I don't know how good he'll be in such a small league and Jose Valentin at SS may not be a plus any more. Miguel Cabrera will be team MVP and a wealth of other outfielders may shake out decently if Jeff can stay on top of who is having a good year amongst Brian Giles, Preston Wilson, Milton Bradley, and lots of bad Rockies. They may very well challenge Carl for second place. I can't decide who I like better right now.
NL - Kerfeld - Rabid Woofers
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
I've been listening to a lot of Deep Purple lately and "Space Truckin'" has been on my mind a lot. That's the song I think of when I think of Slave driving out west with all his stuff. And with this team's potential you'd be singing it too. "Come on! Come on! Come on! Let's GO Space Truckin'!"
Nice rotation, nephew! Hmmm. Who doesn't make the cut out of Ollie Perez, Jake Peavy, Mark Mulder, Javy Vazquez, Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, and Dontrelle Willis. My guess is Carpenter and Willis unless Vazquez or Mulder is hiding an injury. Easily the deepest and strongest rotation in the league. The bullpen is not incredible but should be fine. What about the offense?
Slave snapped up my unheld Michael Barrett at catcher. I kind of forgot to consider position scarcity in picking my holds. Derek Lee and Marcus Giles are strong on the right side of the infield. David Wright and Khalil Greene are strong on the left side. This doesn't count backups D'Angelo Jimenez and Jose Reyes. The outfield has JD Drew, Carlos Lee, Luis Gonzalez, Brad Wilkerson, and Moises Alou. Wow. No holes anywhere.
This is a very good, very deep team that will blow away their division and probably dominate into the next decade. That's my prediction.
Come on! Come on! Come on! Let's Go Space Truckin'!
NL - Kerfeld - Gas House Gang
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
Battling Slave will be Ken's returning two-time division champs the Gas House Gang. Can they compete? Let's look.
The rotation might be great if everything breaks right. Jason Schmidt is the bomb. Odalis Perez, Kerry Wood, John Smoltz are all question marks who might be top tier pitchers. Tom Glavine doesn't hurt you as a Number Five. Good stuff but not in the same class as Slave's. The bullpens are comparable. Can Kenny catch him offensively?
Albert Pujols is better than anyone on Slave's team, or really the league. But what about the harder positions to find offense? One thing that will not work in Ken's favor this year is he had a lot of guys who outperformed expectations last year and will likely regress: Lyle Overbay, Johnny Estrada, and Jack Wilson particularly. Chipper Jones at third gives Ken better offense than Slave at the corners but Slave is stronger up the middle. IF Ken Griffey Jr. miraculously has an All-Star full season, then an outfield of Griffey, Jason Bay and Austin Kearns can keep up with Slave. But I think that is a dubious threat.
All in all, Ken's boys will have a decent season but still fall just short.
NL - Kerfeld - Crooked K's
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Lou's back for another season of annoying people during the draft. He wisely held Rick Ankiel, knowing that an All-Star corner outfielder in 2008 will come in handy, and drafted a ton of pitchers to wind up with FIFTEEN after the dust settled. Are any of them good?
AJ Burnett, Josh Beckett, and Jerome Williams are the youngsters at the top and Kris Benson may put it all together under Rick Peterson. That's a good start for now and the future. Veterans Al Leiter, Mike Hampton, and Victor Zambrano will amuse. The bullpen will be strong with Armando Benitez and Brad Lidge.
Offensively, a passel of catchers starring Mike Piazza will be a plus. The left side of Aramis Ramirez and a healthy Nomar will be embarrassed by a left side with Junior Spivey and Jeff Conine, after the inevitable season-ending Nick Johnson injury. Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, and Pat Burrell will provide a lot of firepower.
The team isn't bad but isn't quite on a level with Ken or Slave. And the future should be an improvement especially with the maturation of the rotation.
NL - Kerfeld - Smoking Guns
Short-Term Outlook: C Long-Term Outlook: D
Last off-season, Matt adopted a "win now" approach and didn't hold on to some of the young players he'd drafted with an eye to the future. With three strong teams in the division, "win now" may have to wait a while.
The rotation is the weakest in the division with a lot of innings-munchers who won't be with the team in three years. Greg Maddux, Corey Lidle, Eric Milton, Adam Eaton, Bret Tomko, Brett Myers, Estaban Loaiza, Brian Lawrence will have decent major league seasons but can't be called aces in such a small league as ours. The bullpen has a gimpy Eric Gagne and some possible ugly lines from Dans Kolb and Graves.
The core of the offense has some upside and servicable backups if there are injuries but no true superstars: Mike Lieberthal, Adam LaRoche, Ray Durham, Mike Lowell, Kaz Matsui, Juan Pierre, Shawn Green, and Jason Lane won't hurt you but without a real superstar they don't have the firepower of the other teams in the division. Superstars are what win this league and possible future superstars, before they become superstars, are how to win for the future.
Continuing the predictions from last week, here's a look at the NL No Glory.
NL - Kruk - Dancin' Homers
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
Can this 108-win team repeat as league champions? They had a ton of career years coincide last year: Abreu, Rolen, Edmonds, Rollins, Sheets all had their best seasons. So you would express some regression from this core. But the team also added Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, plus a lot of strong role-players (and I don't mean half-elf sorcerors) have departed in the early rounds of the draft for other teams. Let's look at the roster.
The pitching is good, with a rotation of Pedro, Sheets, Clemens and some combination of Brad Penny, Brandon Webb, Kip Wells and Woody Williams but seemingly filled with question marks. Several injuries could devastate them. The bullpen is not nearly as strong as it has been in recent years because I used early picks on minor leaguers and filling holes on the right side of the infield. But last year they won 108 with Clemens, Sheets, Smoke, and Mirrors. It seems improved from last year.
The offense is essentially unchanged except for the following:
- Replacement of Jason Kendall/Michael Barrett with Jason LaRue/Benito Santiago/Brad Ausmus. That's a minus.
- The addition of Sean Casey. That's a plus.
- The addition of Carlos Beltran. That's a BIG plus.
I think the Beltran and Casey additions outweigh the catcher spot drop in both offense and defense. With the expected regression factored in, it doesn't seem like the team will lose the division barring a plague of injuries.
The team was short on high-level prospects going into the draft but replacing the PlaToddco PoWalkco platoon with Rickie Weeks and aging Casey and Bagpipes with Prince Fielder seems to be a good calculation to future success.
NL - Kruk - Soko AtarijinShort-Term Outlook: D Long-Term Outlook: D
Does anyone have a dictionary? I want to look up the definition of "hopeless". Just kidding. Well...
The rotation is interesting. There are a ton of guys here who may have a good week or two, get inserted in the number one slot, and then be crap for the remainder of the season. Yes I'm looking right at Jason Marquis, Russ Ortiz, Mark Redman, Paul Wilson, and Zach Day. Derek Lowe and Tony Armas will have the usual predictable mediocrity and Randy Wolf has possible upside, possible career-ending injury potential. The bullpen is full of many non-stars.
Catching has two guys who didn't make the cut for their real-life team and Koyie Hill who will be in a platoon at best. Helton rules and Kent and Glaus will bat above average. Shortstop looks to be bad and ... FOUR outfielders?? I guess Craig Wilson counts. Pena isn't a starter so you've got some combination of Jose Guillen, Larry Walker, Jeromy Burnitz, and Wilson out there. Wow.
Last place. No help on the immediate horizon. Wow. What happened? Randy has a PhD? Maybe that's what happened.
NL - Kruk - Cholesterol Kings
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Now, I love Barry Bonds. But I kind of would have enjoyed sitting next to Carl on the couch watching the White Sox game when they interrupted to cut to Barry Bonds's press conference where he said he might not play this season. Combined with the injury to Lance Berkman, this may have killed Carl's chance this year. If Carl is within 10 games at the end of May, he will have a shot. Otherwise I think second place again is in the cards. Berkman and Bonds are just too much of the team's firepower.
The pitching has a lot of useful guys, a lot of rookies, and Mark Prior a Cy Young winner if healthy. That's a big IF and Dusty is driving that train. Behind Prior a combination of Livian, Weaver, Lieber, Morris and Suppan should be ok. Carl has some good ERA relievers too but the pitching is not going to be what carries the team.
Without Bonds and Berkman, we're looking at a three-headed catching tandem of Todd Greene, a backup, Yorvit Torrealba, a backup, and Chris Snyder, a platooner who should all have limited liveable numbers; the enigmatic Big Choi; the surprisingly good Mark Loretta; the surprisingly inconsistent Morgan Ensberg and weak Sean Burroughs; and the decent Rafael Furcal. The outfield has useful non-stars in Geoff Jenkins, Mike Cameron and Corey Patterson. That makes Mark Loretta pretty much the best hitter on the team to start out and I think that's a tough row to hoe in an 8-team fantasy league.
Carl's always got good looking future players and he would improve with a healthy full season of Berkman.
NL - Kruk - Autoexec.Batsmen
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
This might be the year Jeff gets second place. Has he ever done that before? Maybe. I'll have my intern research that out. Still, I think it's going to be a third-place finish for the A-Bmen.
Their pitching has a great one-two with Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano. Will Andy Pettitte pitch well? If so, the rotation is a plus. If not, they are counting on John Thompson and Doug Davis to continue to improve. The bullpen is unremarkable.
Catching... Paul LoDuca is servicable, Jim Thome is fantastic and Jose Vidro is expected to return to tops in the league status. Russ Branyan is cool but I don't know how good he'll be in such a small league and Jose Valentin at SS may not be a plus any more. Miguel Cabrera will be team MVP and a wealth of other outfielders may shake out decently if Jeff can stay on top of who is having a good year amongst Brian Giles, Preston Wilson, Milton Bradley, and lots of bad Rockies. They may very well challenge Carl for second place. I can't decide who I like better right now.
NL - Kerfeld - Rabid Woofers
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
I've been listening to a lot of Deep Purple lately and "Space Truckin'" has been on my mind a lot. That's the song I think of when I think of Slave driving out west with all his stuff. And with this team's potential you'd be singing it too. "Come on! Come on! Come on! Let's GO Space Truckin'!"
Nice rotation, nephew! Hmmm. Who doesn't make the cut out of Ollie Perez, Jake Peavy, Mark Mulder, Javy Vazquez, Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, and Dontrelle Willis. My guess is Carpenter and Willis unless Vazquez or Mulder is hiding an injury. Easily the deepest and strongest rotation in the league. The bullpen is not incredible but should be fine. What about the offense?
Slave snapped up my unheld Michael Barrett at catcher. I kind of forgot to consider position scarcity in picking my holds. Derek Lee and Marcus Giles are strong on the right side of the infield. David Wright and Khalil Greene are strong on the left side. This doesn't count backups D'Angelo Jimenez and Jose Reyes. The outfield has JD Drew, Carlos Lee, Luis Gonzalez, Brad Wilkerson, and Moises Alou. Wow. No holes anywhere.
This is a very good, very deep team that will blow away their division and probably dominate into the next decade. That's my prediction.
Come on! Come on! Come on! Let's Go Space Truckin'!
NL - Kerfeld - Gas House Gang
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
Battling Slave will be Ken's returning two-time division champs the Gas House Gang. Can they compete? Let's look.
The rotation might be great if everything breaks right. Jason Schmidt is the bomb. Odalis Perez, Kerry Wood, John Smoltz are all question marks who might be top tier pitchers. Tom Glavine doesn't hurt you as a Number Five. Good stuff but not in the same class as Slave's. The bullpens are comparable. Can Kenny catch him offensively?
Albert Pujols is better than anyone on Slave's team, or really the league. But what about the harder positions to find offense? One thing that will not work in Ken's favor this year is he had a lot of guys who outperformed expectations last year and will likely regress: Lyle Overbay, Johnny Estrada, and Jack Wilson particularly. Chipper Jones at third gives Ken better offense than Slave at the corners but Slave is stronger up the middle. IF Ken Griffey Jr. miraculously has an All-Star full season, then an outfield of Griffey, Jason Bay and Austin Kearns can keep up with Slave. But I think that is a dubious threat.
All in all, Ken's boys will have a decent season but still fall just short.
NL - Kerfeld - Crooked K's
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Lou's back for another season of annoying people during the draft. He wisely held Rick Ankiel, knowing that an All-Star corner outfielder in 2008 will come in handy, and drafted a ton of pitchers to wind up with FIFTEEN after the dust settled. Are any of them good?
AJ Burnett, Josh Beckett, and Jerome Williams are the youngsters at the top and Kris Benson may put it all together under Rick Peterson. That's a good start for now and the future. Veterans Al Leiter, Mike Hampton, and Victor Zambrano will amuse. The bullpen will be strong with Armando Benitez and Brad Lidge.
Offensively, a passel of catchers starring Mike Piazza will be a plus. The left side of Aramis Ramirez and a healthy Nomar will be embarrassed by a left side with Junior Spivey and Jeff Conine, after the inevitable season-ending Nick Johnson injury. Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, and Pat Burrell will provide a lot of firepower.
The team isn't bad but isn't quite on a level with Ken or Slave. And the future should be an improvement especially with the maturation of the rotation.
NL - Kerfeld - Smoking Guns
Short-Term Outlook: C Long-Term Outlook: D
Last off-season, Matt adopted a "win now" approach and didn't hold on to some of the young players he'd drafted with an eye to the future. With three strong teams in the division, "win now" may have to wait a while.
The rotation is the weakest in the division with a lot of innings-munchers who won't be with the team in three years. Greg Maddux, Corey Lidle, Eric Milton, Adam Eaton, Bret Tomko, Brett Myers, Estaban Loaiza, Brian Lawrence will have decent major league seasons but can't be called aces in such a small league as ours. The bullpen has a gimpy Eric Gagne and some possible ugly lines from Dans Kolb and Graves.
The core of the offense has some upside and servicable backups if there are injuries but no true superstars: Mike Lieberthal, Adam LaRoche, Ray Durham, Mike Lowell, Kaz Matsui, Juan Pierre, Shawn Green, and Jason Lane won't hurt you but without a real superstar they don't have the firepower of the other teams in the division. Superstars are what win this league and possible future superstars, before they become superstars, are how to win for the future.
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