Wednesday, March 23, 2005
Pre-Season Pre-Dick-tions
Well, it has been extremely slow at work, so even though I usually try to avoid doing predictions since they make people mad, I'm going to go ahead and do some to kill time.
AL - Fielder - Cursed Bambinos
Short-Term Outlook: B. Long-Term Outlook: C
The Bambis took a hit in the off-season, losing Mark Mulder and with injury issues swirling around Curt Schilling and stronger competition in the division, I don't think they will repeat as champions.
The rotation has only one guy I like, really, in Schilling. People at the YES Network are going on at how great Carl Pavano is going to be, but he's going to have to prove it to me. Wakefield is servicable but I think Moyer and Lohse are gonig to be terrible. If Schilling doesn't throw 200 innings, I don't see a .500 record, despite the offense. The bullpen looks to be league average.
The infield looks a bit odd, with two good shortstops in Crosby and Young, a good backup in Figgins at 2B and a bad 3B in Hinske. Ortiz rules, yes. Behind him are two bad hitters in Erstad and Minky. Catcher might have some problems if Lopez goes down with only Mirabelli and Flaherty, two backups to back him up. It seems like Young or Crosby will have to play out of position to get their bat into the lineup. But there is very little depth here. The outfield is good and deep with ManRam, Anderson, Nixon, Kotsay, and Stewart seeming to be the top guys. The extra, or worst defender (Hey ManRam!) should DH. All in all, it should be a servicable offense with some funny defense and not a lot of depth.
This is a veteran team too, without a lot of projected younger stars. For this year, I'm predicting third place in their division. Why, when they won last year? Gut feeling.
AL - Fielder - Whistles Go Woo
Short-Term Outlook: B. Long-Term Outlook: B
Lou is back at the helm and hopefully paying attention this year. The offense is going to crush the ball, obviously. He's got another year out of Delgado and a possible healthy year for Mauer. Sheffield, Guerrero, and Wells could be the AL starting All-Star OF. Hudson at 2B is decent. Renteria at SS is a plus and if Joe Crede is your 9th batter, that's not the worst thing in the world. DH can come from some below-average first-basemen and OFs like Palmeiro or Carlos Pena or Juan Rivera. We're looking at a lot of runs scored. But what about the pitching?
Taking a flyer on Kevin Brown was a good idea, as he'll have the best chance to be an ace on the staff. Arroyo will be above-average. Sabathia will hopefully not eat his own arm, Gil Meche could be league average and Jaret Wright might not be the worst free-agent signing in Yankee history. Still, that's a lot of question marks with ugly answers backing them up. The bullpen is going to have to depend on some of those ugly answers like Ryan Franklin, until some supplemental drafts.
Longer-term, they have some younger pitchers that might be worthwhile, and Mauer might be a league MVP someday.
This season, I put them around the same level as Cursed Bambinos. Both have strong players and question marks but the power offense should carry more wins slightly. Second place.
AL - Fielder - Errant Shadows
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Last year's second place finishers look to take the next step up but I think the strength of the division is going to knock them down. A solid bullpen will be sorely leaned on by a weak back-end of the rotation with no big stars. Buehrle, Westbrook, Escobar should be solid but unspectacular while I think Washburn is headed for a fall. David Bush might be ok but with Batista moving to Toronto's bullpen leaves not a lot of wiggle room if there is an injury.
The offense is ok but can't compete with Lou's. Every position has a solid performer: Ichiro, Crawford, Maggs, Uribe, Koskie, Roberts, Sexson, and Varitek with Millar DHing or Broussard but no one of those guys can have a single impact like a Vlad or a ManRam. Still, the team is overrall pretty solid. I think it will be a tight race but the Shadows will fall behind Ken and Lou. The future brings Dallas McPherson and BJ Upton and a possible title.
AL - Fielder - Bingo's Fuzzy Puppies
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
That only leaves one spot left in the standings. How can I pick a basement dweller to go worst to first? One reason is 6 foot 11 and strikes out 250 guys a year. Adding Randy Johnson to an already talented rotation makes this the team to beat in the Fielder. Johnson and Mussina are the best 1-2 in the division and that doesn't even count Jeremy Bonderman and Zack Greinke who might be even better than Mussina this year. The bullpen looks mediocre, but really so what?
On offense, Slave has the best catcher in the league in Pudge and the best overall hitter, possibly, in A-Rod at third. Carlos Guillen was the best shortstop in the league last year according to most advanced metrics and someone from Iguchi/Cuddyer/Infante/Belliard will be a good 2B just by virtue of quantity of quality. That's not even counting the arrival of Ian Kinsler at some point. At first, Giambi is a question mark but even if he gets back a smidgen of his old value, that's a strong base. And if he sucks, 1Bmen are the easiest things to find and Slave has value to trade. OFers Damon, Reed, Bernie, Hidalgo, and even Podsednik with his good range are valuable. I don't see any major flaws here and he has many apparent future stars on the team. I think this year might be close, but will be the first of many Fielder championships for the Puppies.
AL - Forster - Burninators
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: A
Two big hits to the rotation - the defections of Pedro and Hudson from the league, I think spell the end of the Burninators reign in the Forster but maybe not for too long.
The rotation still has Santana and Halladay. If Lopez can get off the roller-coaster, he should be above average this year and youngsters like Lackey, Ledezma, and Madritsch have a year to show if they will be good or not. Still, it's a step down from the heady times of two years ago. The bullpen could be terrible again and sabotage the team. Time will tell.
On offense, there is a young core of Chavez, Martinez, Morneau, and Hafner and above average guys Matsui and Boone. A lot will depend on getting good production on centerfielder David Dejesus. If he can put up a .375 obp, that would be good. Useful role-players fill out the rest of a heavily platoonable offense.
If things all fall right, I could win the division again, but I think it's too many ifs for this year. For the future, there are a lot of good looking young guys who are entering their peak years soon and not that many old guys so look for a return to form in 2006.
AL - Forster - Wookies
Short-Term Outlook: D Long-Term Outlook: D
MarkTeixeira is awesome. So is Keith Foulke. Moving on...
AL - Forster - Tri-Bonds
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
These guys looked primed for a one year run at a title. The rotation will be the best in the division with Zito, Radke, Clement, Wells all putting up good numbers and whatever schmuck takes the 5-slot getting league-average stats. The bullpen will be decent with Rivera anchoring them down. The offense gets superior production at tough positions in Posada, Jeter, and Soriano. Is Mora fora real? If so, he and Konerko provide more pop. The outfield is not so fresh with a few decent fourth outfielders like Byrnes and Ibanez and... blech. Are the outfielders going to bat 7-9? Who is going to play center? If the overall defense doesn't hamstring the rotation these guys should win this year. The future has Delmon Young and the guy who jumps cars.
AL - Forster - Highway Kind
Short-Term Outlook: C Long-Term Outlook: B
Who gets the ball after Rich Harden? I mean, before Wade Miller gets back. If it is a combination of Colon, Contreras, Byrd, Rogers and Garland... p.u. Dan Meyer is already struggling in Spring Training and Brandon McCarthy might commission a rotation spot but is likely not ready to excel in the bigs. King Felix? Maybe the same thing. Still, in two years these guys will rule.
Bullpen... small but good.
A stellar infield will score a lot of runs - Blalock, Huff and Beltre can take a 3B and a DH spot and one of them has to suck it. Durazo maybe sits? Who knows? These guys are kind of susceptible to lefties too. Tejada and Bellhorn can balance that out and Kendall is solid. But the outfield is going to be expecting a return to form for Lew Ford and Aaron Rowand who may have had career years. Cruz and Dye are good filler but maybe Huff can play the outfield. At any rate, I think the rotation's issues are going to push them down to third. But look out for the future young guns.
Well, it has been extremely slow at work, so even though I usually try to avoid doing predictions since they make people mad, I'm going to go ahead and do some to kill time.
AL - Fielder - Cursed Bambinos
Short-Term Outlook: B. Long-Term Outlook: C
The Bambis took a hit in the off-season, losing Mark Mulder and with injury issues swirling around Curt Schilling and stronger competition in the division, I don't think they will repeat as champions.
The rotation has only one guy I like, really, in Schilling. People at the YES Network are going on at how great Carl Pavano is going to be, but he's going to have to prove it to me. Wakefield is servicable but I think Moyer and Lohse are gonig to be terrible. If Schilling doesn't throw 200 innings, I don't see a .500 record, despite the offense. The bullpen looks to be league average.
The infield looks a bit odd, with two good shortstops in Crosby and Young, a good backup in Figgins at 2B and a bad 3B in Hinske. Ortiz rules, yes. Behind him are two bad hitters in Erstad and Minky. Catcher might have some problems if Lopez goes down with only Mirabelli and Flaherty, two backups to back him up. It seems like Young or Crosby will have to play out of position to get their bat into the lineup. But there is very little depth here. The outfield is good and deep with ManRam, Anderson, Nixon, Kotsay, and Stewart seeming to be the top guys. The extra, or worst defender (Hey ManRam!) should DH. All in all, it should be a servicable offense with some funny defense and not a lot of depth.
This is a veteran team too, without a lot of projected younger stars. For this year, I'm predicting third place in their division. Why, when they won last year? Gut feeling.
AL - Fielder - Whistles Go Woo
Short-Term Outlook: B. Long-Term Outlook: B
Lou is back at the helm and hopefully paying attention this year. The offense is going to crush the ball, obviously. He's got another year out of Delgado and a possible healthy year for Mauer. Sheffield, Guerrero, and Wells could be the AL starting All-Star OF. Hudson at 2B is decent. Renteria at SS is a plus and if Joe Crede is your 9th batter, that's not the worst thing in the world. DH can come from some below-average first-basemen and OFs like Palmeiro or Carlos Pena or Juan Rivera. We're looking at a lot of runs scored. But what about the pitching?
Taking a flyer on Kevin Brown was a good idea, as he'll have the best chance to be an ace on the staff. Arroyo will be above-average. Sabathia will hopefully not eat his own arm, Gil Meche could be league average and Jaret Wright might not be the worst free-agent signing in Yankee history. Still, that's a lot of question marks with ugly answers backing them up. The bullpen is going to have to depend on some of those ugly answers like Ryan Franklin, until some supplemental drafts.
Longer-term, they have some younger pitchers that might be worthwhile, and Mauer might be a league MVP someday.
This season, I put them around the same level as Cursed Bambinos. Both have strong players and question marks but the power offense should carry more wins slightly. Second place.
AL - Fielder - Errant Shadows
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Last year's second place finishers look to take the next step up but I think the strength of the division is going to knock them down. A solid bullpen will be sorely leaned on by a weak back-end of the rotation with no big stars. Buehrle, Westbrook, Escobar should be solid but unspectacular while I think Washburn is headed for a fall. David Bush might be ok but with Batista moving to Toronto's bullpen leaves not a lot of wiggle room if there is an injury.
The offense is ok but can't compete with Lou's. Every position has a solid performer: Ichiro, Crawford, Maggs, Uribe, Koskie, Roberts, Sexson, and Varitek with Millar DHing or Broussard but no one of those guys can have a single impact like a Vlad or a ManRam. Still, the team is overrall pretty solid. I think it will be a tight race but the Shadows will fall behind Ken and Lou. The future brings Dallas McPherson and BJ Upton and a possible title.
AL - Fielder - Bingo's Fuzzy Puppies
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
That only leaves one spot left in the standings. How can I pick a basement dweller to go worst to first? One reason is 6 foot 11 and strikes out 250 guys a year. Adding Randy Johnson to an already talented rotation makes this the team to beat in the Fielder. Johnson and Mussina are the best 1-2 in the division and that doesn't even count Jeremy Bonderman and Zack Greinke who might be even better than Mussina this year. The bullpen looks mediocre, but really so what?
On offense, Slave has the best catcher in the league in Pudge and the best overall hitter, possibly, in A-Rod at third. Carlos Guillen was the best shortstop in the league last year according to most advanced metrics and someone from Iguchi/Cuddyer/Infante/Belliard will be a good 2B just by virtue of quantity of quality. That's not even counting the arrival of Ian Kinsler at some point. At first, Giambi is a question mark but even if he gets back a smidgen of his old value, that's a strong base. And if he sucks, 1Bmen are the easiest things to find and Slave has value to trade. OFers Damon, Reed, Bernie, Hidalgo, and even Podsednik with his good range are valuable. I don't see any major flaws here and he has many apparent future stars on the team. I think this year might be close, but will be the first of many Fielder championships for the Puppies.
AL - Forster - Burninators
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: A
Two big hits to the rotation - the defections of Pedro and Hudson from the league, I think spell the end of the Burninators reign in the Forster but maybe not for too long.
The rotation still has Santana and Halladay. If Lopez can get off the roller-coaster, he should be above average this year and youngsters like Lackey, Ledezma, and Madritsch have a year to show if they will be good or not. Still, it's a step down from the heady times of two years ago. The bullpen could be terrible again and sabotage the team. Time will tell.
On offense, there is a young core of Chavez, Martinez, Morneau, and Hafner and above average guys Matsui and Boone. A lot will depend on getting good production on centerfielder David Dejesus. If he can put up a .375 obp, that would be good. Useful role-players fill out the rest of a heavily platoonable offense.
If things all fall right, I could win the division again, but I think it's too many ifs for this year. For the future, there are a lot of good looking young guys who are entering their peak years soon and not that many old guys so look for a return to form in 2006.
AL - Forster - Wookies
Short-Term Outlook: D Long-Term Outlook: D
MarkTeixeira is awesome. So is Keith Foulke. Moving on...
AL - Forster - Tri-Bonds
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
These guys looked primed for a one year run at a title. The rotation will be the best in the division with Zito, Radke, Clement, Wells all putting up good numbers and whatever schmuck takes the 5-slot getting league-average stats. The bullpen will be decent with Rivera anchoring them down. The offense gets superior production at tough positions in Posada, Jeter, and Soriano. Is Mora fora real? If so, he and Konerko provide more pop. The outfield is not so fresh with a few decent fourth outfielders like Byrnes and Ibanez and... blech. Are the outfielders going to bat 7-9? Who is going to play center? If the overall defense doesn't hamstring the rotation these guys should win this year. The future has Delmon Young and the guy who jumps cars.
AL - Forster - Highway Kind
Short-Term Outlook: C Long-Term Outlook: B
Who gets the ball after Rich Harden? I mean, before Wade Miller gets back. If it is a combination of Colon, Contreras, Byrd, Rogers and Garland... p.u. Dan Meyer is already struggling in Spring Training and Brandon McCarthy might commission a rotation spot but is likely not ready to excel in the bigs. King Felix? Maybe the same thing. Still, in two years these guys will rule.
Bullpen... small but good.
A stellar infield will score a lot of runs - Blalock, Huff and Beltre can take a 3B and a DH spot and one of them has to suck it. Durazo maybe sits? Who knows? These guys are kind of susceptible to lefties too. Tejada and Bellhorn can balance that out and Kendall is solid. But the outfield is going to be expecting a return to form for Lew Ford and Aaron Rowand who may have had career years. Cruz and Dye are good filler but maybe Huff can play the outfield. At any rate, I think the rotation's issues are going to push them down to third. But look out for the future young guns.
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