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Thursday, April 14, 2005

Revisiting the Trade

Chipper for Mulder:

I felt that this was a classic risk/reward trade for me. Mulder's peak is greater than Chipper's proudction at his current age because top pitchers are platinum to 3B gold in Scoresheet. Nevertheless, I took on substantially more risk in this trade. Both Chipper and Mulder struggled last year; however, the nature of their struggles were much different.

Chipper Jones had an injury hold him back in the 1st half. His 2nd half performance was comparable to his usual outstanding performances. I had little reason to believe that his OPS would not be .920+ again this year.

Mark Mulder had a precipitous drop in the 2nd half last year and single-handedly cost the A's a playoff spot. Late in the year, his starts were like playoff starts in that he was yanked at the first sign of trouble. This lack of confidence is never seen in upper echelon pitchers like Johnson and Schilling.

I made the trade because I already had a good staff and would not be killed by a Mulder flameout, I could make a small gamble with David Wright at 3B, and with Mike's team so strong, this was an opportunity to seize a competitive advantage with our offenses so comparable (my steady production vs. his slight edge in superstar production).

Unfortunately, Mulder has looked horrible and the gamble will likely not pay dividends. I do not expect any sympathy as Peavy, Hudson, and D-train look dominant. I also expect one of the struggling pitchers, Oliver, Vazquez, or even Mulder to get his head on straight and combine with Carpenter to give me an excellent rotation.

However, I seem to be 1 dominant starter short of my goal, which is music to the ears of the Dancing Homers as well as Smith and Loo, who have an opening in a suddenly more interesting divisional race.

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