Wednesday, March 30, 2005
NL Predictions
Continuing the predictions from last week, here's a look at the NL No Glory.
NL - Kruk - Dancin' Homers
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
Can this 108-win team repeat as league champions? They had a ton of career years coincide last year: Abreu, Rolen, Edmonds, Rollins, Sheets all had their best seasons. So you would express some regression from this core. But the team also added Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, plus a lot of strong role-players (and I don't mean half-elf sorcerors) have departed in the early rounds of the draft for other teams. Let's look at the roster.
The pitching is good, with a rotation of Pedro, Sheets, Clemens and some combination of Brad Penny, Brandon Webb, Kip Wells and Woody Williams but seemingly filled with question marks. Several injuries could devastate them. The bullpen is not nearly as strong as it has been in recent years because I used early picks on minor leaguers and filling holes on the right side of the infield. But last year they won 108 with Clemens, Sheets, Smoke, and Mirrors. It seems improved from last year.
The offense is essentially unchanged except for the following:
Short-Term Outlook: D Long-Term Outlook: D
Does anyone have a dictionary? I want to look up the definition of "hopeless". Just kidding. Well...
The rotation is interesting. There are a ton of guys here who may have a good week or two, get inserted in the number one slot, and then be crap for the remainder of the season. Yes I'm looking right at Jason Marquis, Russ Ortiz, Mark Redman, Paul Wilson, and Zach Day. Derek Lowe and Tony Armas will have the usual predictable mediocrity and Randy Wolf has possible upside, possible career-ending injury potential. The bullpen is full of many non-stars.
Catching has two guys who didn't make the cut for their real-life team and Koyie Hill who will be in a platoon at best. Helton rules and Kent and Glaus will bat above average. Shortstop looks to be bad and ... FOUR outfielders?? I guess Craig Wilson counts. Pena isn't a starter so you've got some combination of Jose Guillen, Larry Walker, Jeromy Burnitz, and Wilson out there. Wow.
Last place. No help on the immediate horizon. Wow. What happened? Randy has a PhD? Maybe that's what happened.
NL - Kruk - Cholesterol Kings
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Now, I love Barry Bonds. But I kind of would have enjoyed sitting next to Carl on the couch watching the White Sox game when they interrupted to cut to Barry Bonds's press conference where he said he might not play this season. Combined with the injury to Lance Berkman, this may have killed Carl's chance this year. If Carl is within 10 games at the end of May, he will have a shot. Otherwise I think second place again is in the cards. Berkman and Bonds are just too much of the team's firepower.
The pitching has a lot of useful guys, a lot of rookies, and Mark Prior a Cy Young winner if healthy. That's a big IF and Dusty is driving that train. Behind Prior a combination of Livian, Weaver, Lieber, Morris and Suppan should be ok. Carl has some good ERA relievers too but the pitching is not going to be what carries the team.
Without Bonds and Berkman, we're looking at a three-headed catching tandem of Todd Greene, a backup, Yorvit Torrealba, a backup, and Chris Snyder, a platooner who should all have limited liveable numbers; the enigmatic Big Choi; the surprisingly good Mark Loretta; the surprisingly inconsistent Morgan Ensberg and weak Sean Burroughs; and the decent Rafael Furcal. The outfield has useful non-stars in Geoff Jenkins, Mike Cameron and Corey Patterson. That makes Mark Loretta pretty much the best hitter on the team to start out and I think that's a tough row to hoe in an 8-team fantasy league.
Carl's always got good looking future players and he would improve with a healthy full season of Berkman.
NL - Kruk - Autoexec.Batsmen
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
This might be the year Jeff gets second place. Has he ever done that before? Maybe. I'll have my intern research that out. Still, I think it's going to be a third-place finish for the A-Bmen.
Their pitching has a great one-two with Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano. Will Andy Pettitte pitch well? If so, the rotation is a plus. If not, they are counting on John Thompson and Doug Davis to continue to improve. The bullpen is unremarkable.
Catching... Paul LoDuca is servicable, Jim Thome is fantastic and Jose Vidro is expected to return to tops in the league status. Russ Branyan is cool but I don't know how good he'll be in such a small league and Jose Valentin at SS may not be a plus any more. Miguel Cabrera will be team MVP and a wealth of other outfielders may shake out decently if Jeff can stay on top of who is having a good year amongst Brian Giles, Preston Wilson, Milton Bradley, and lots of bad Rockies. They may very well challenge Carl for second place. I can't decide who I like better right now.
NL - Kerfeld - Rabid Woofers
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
I've been listening to a lot of Deep Purple lately and "Space Truckin'" has been on my mind a lot. That's the song I think of when I think of Slave driving out west with all his stuff. And with this team's potential you'd be singing it too. "Come on! Come on! Come on! Let's GO Space Truckin'!"
Nice rotation, nephew! Hmmm. Who doesn't make the cut out of Ollie Perez, Jake Peavy, Mark Mulder, Javy Vazquez, Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, and Dontrelle Willis. My guess is Carpenter and Willis unless Vazquez or Mulder is hiding an injury. Easily the deepest and strongest rotation in the league. The bullpen is not incredible but should be fine. What about the offense?
Slave snapped up my unheld Michael Barrett at catcher. I kind of forgot to consider position scarcity in picking my holds. Derek Lee and Marcus Giles are strong on the right side of the infield. David Wright and Khalil Greene are strong on the left side. This doesn't count backups D'Angelo Jimenez and Jose Reyes. The outfield has JD Drew, Carlos Lee, Luis Gonzalez, Brad Wilkerson, and Moises Alou. Wow. No holes anywhere.
This is a very good, very deep team that will blow away their division and probably dominate into the next decade. That's my prediction.
Come on! Come on! Come on! Let's Go Space Truckin'!
NL - Kerfeld - Gas House Gang
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
Battling Slave will be Ken's returning two-time division champs the Gas House Gang. Can they compete? Let's look.
The rotation might be great if everything breaks right. Jason Schmidt is the bomb. Odalis Perez, Kerry Wood, John Smoltz are all question marks who might be top tier pitchers. Tom Glavine doesn't hurt you as a Number Five. Good stuff but not in the same class as Slave's. The bullpens are comparable. Can Kenny catch him offensively?
Albert Pujols is better than anyone on Slave's team, or really the league. But what about the harder positions to find offense? One thing that will not work in Ken's favor this year is he had a lot of guys who outperformed expectations last year and will likely regress: Lyle Overbay, Johnny Estrada, and Jack Wilson particularly. Chipper Jones at third gives Ken better offense than Slave at the corners but Slave is stronger up the middle. IF Ken Griffey Jr. miraculously has an All-Star full season, then an outfield of Griffey, Jason Bay and Austin Kearns can keep up with Slave. But I think that is a dubious threat.
All in all, Ken's boys will have a decent season but still fall just short.
NL - Kerfeld - Crooked K's
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Lou's back for another season of annoying people during the draft. He wisely held Rick Ankiel, knowing that an All-Star corner outfielder in 2008 will come in handy, and drafted a ton of pitchers to wind up with FIFTEEN after the dust settled. Are any of them good?
AJ Burnett, Josh Beckett, and Jerome Williams are the youngsters at the top and Kris Benson may put it all together under Rick Peterson. That's a good start for now and the future. Veterans Al Leiter, Mike Hampton, and Victor Zambrano will amuse. The bullpen will be strong with Armando Benitez and Brad Lidge.
Offensively, a passel of catchers starring Mike Piazza will be a plus. The left side of Aramis Ramirez and a healthy Nomar will be embarrassed by a left side with Junior Spivey and Jeff Conine, after the inevitable season-ending Nick Johnson injury. Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, and Pat Burrell will provide a lot of firepower.
The team isn't bad but isn't quite on a level with Ken or Slave. And the future should be an improvement especially with the maturation of the rotation.
NL - Kerfeld - Smoking Guns
Short-Term Outlook: C Long-Term Outlook: D
Last off-season, Matt adopted a "win now" approach and didn't hold on to some of the young players he'd drafted with an eye to the future. With three strong teams in the division, "win now" may have to wait a while.
The rotation is the weakest in the division with a lot of innings-munchers who won't be with the team in three years. Greg Maddux, Corey Lidle, Eric Milton, Adam Eaton, Bret Tomko, Brett Myers, Estaban Loaiza, Brian Lawrence will have decent major league seasons but can't be called aces in such a small league as ours. The bullpen has a gimpy Eric Gagne and some possible ugly lines from Dans Kolb and Graves.
The core of the offense has some upside and servicable backups if there are injuries but no true superstars: Mike Lieberthal, Adam LaRoche, Ray Durham, Mike Lowell, Kaz Matsui, Juan Pierre, Shawn Green, and Jason Lane won't hurt you but without a real superstar they don't have the firepower of the other teams in the division. Superstars are what win this league and possible future superstars, before they become superstars, are how to win for the future.
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Continuing the predictions from last week, here's a look at the NL No Glory.
NL - Kruk - Dancin' Homers
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
Can this 108-win team repeat as league champions? They had a ton of career years coincide last year: Abreu, Rolen, Edmonds, Rollins, Sheets all had their best seasons. So you would express some regression from this core. But the team also added Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, plus a lot of strong role-players (and I don't mean half-elf sorcerors) have departed in the early rounds of the draft for other teams. Let's look at the roster.
The pitching is good, with a rotation of Pedro, Sheets, Clemens and some combination of Brad Penny, Brandon Webb, Kip Wells and Woody Williams but seemingly filled with question marks. Several injuries could devastate them. The bullpen is not nearly as strong as it has been in recent years because I used early picks on minor leaguers and filling holes on the right side of the infield. But last year they won 108 with Clemens, Sheets, Smoke, and Mirrors. It seems improved from last year.
The offense is essentially unchanged except for the following:
- Replacement of Jason Kendall/Michael Barrett with Jason LaRue/Benito Santiago/Brad Ausmus. That's a minus.
- The addition of Sean Casey. That's a plus.
- The addition of Carlos Beltran. That's a BIG plus.
I think the Beltran and Casey additions outweigh the catcher spot drop in both offense and defense. With the expected regression factored in, it doesn't seem like the team will lose the division barring a plague of injuries.
The team was short on high-level prospects going into the draft but replacing the PlaToddco PoWalkco platoon with Rickie Weeks and aging Casey and Bagpipes with Prince Fielder seems to be a good calculation to future success.
NL - Kruk - Soko AtarijinShort-Term Outlook: D Long-Term Outlook: D
Does anyone have a dictionary? I want to look up the definition of "hopeless". Just kidding. Well...
The rotation is interesting. There are a ton of guys here who may have a good week or two, get inserted in the number one slot, and then be crap for the remainder of the season. Yes I'm looking right at Jason Marquis, Russ Ortiz, Mark Redman, Paul Wilson, and Zach Day. Derek Lowe and Tony Armas will have the usual predictable mediocrity and Randy Wolf has possible upside, possible career-ending injury potential. The bullpen is full of many non-stars.
Catching has two guys who didn't make the cut for their real-life team and Koyie Hill who will be in a platoon at best. Helton rules and Kent and Glaus will bat above average. Shortstop looks to be bad and ... FOUR outfielders?? I guess Craig Wilson counts. Pena isn't a starter so you've got some combination of Jose Guillen, Larry Walker, Jeromy Burnitz, and Wilson out there. Wow.
Last place. No help on the immediate horizon. Wow. What happened? Randy has a PhD? Maybe that's what happened.
NL - Kruk - Cholesterol Kings
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Now, I love Barry Bonds. But I kind of would have enjoyed sitting next to Carl on the couch watching the White Sox game when they interrupted to cut to Barry Bonds's press conference where he said he might not play this season. Combined with the injury to Lance Berkman, this may have killed Carl's chance this year. If Carl is within 10 games at the end of May, he will have a shot. Otherwise I think second place again is in the cards. Berkman and Bonds are just too much of the team's firepower.
The pitching has a lot of useful guys, a lot of rookies, and Mark Prior a Cy Young winner if healthy. That's a big IF and Dusty is driving that train. Behind Prior a combination of Livian, Weaver, Lieber, Morris and Suppan should be ok. Carl has some good ERA relievers too but the pitching is not going to be what carries the team.
Without Bonds and Berkman, we're looking at a three-headed catching tandem of Todd Greene, a backup, Yorvit Torrealba, a backup, and Chris Snyder, a platooner who should all have limited liveable numbers; the enigmatic Big Choi; the surprisingly good Mark Loretta; the surprisingly inconsistent Morgan Ensberg and weak Sean Burroughs; and the decent Rafael Furcal. The outfield has useful non-stars in Geoff Jenkins, Mike Cameron and Corey Patterson. That makes Mark Loretta pretty much the best hitter on the team to start out and I think that's a tough row to hoe in an 8-team fantasy league.
Carl's always got good looking future players and he would improve with a healthy full season of Berkman.
NL - Kruk - Autoexec.Batsmen
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
This might be the year Jeff gets second place. Has he ever done that before? Maybe. I'll have my intern research that out. Still, I think it's going to be a third-place finish for the A-Bmen.
Their pitching has a great one-two with Roy Oswalt and Carlos Zambrano. Will Andy Pettitte pitch well? If so, the rotation is a plus. If not, they are counting on John Thompson and Doug Davis to continue to improve. The bullpen is unremarkable.
Catching... Paul LoDuca is servicable, Jim Thome is fantastic and Jose Vidro is expected to return to tops in the league status. Russ Branyan is cool but I don't know how good he'll be in such a small league and Jose Valentin at SS may not be a plus any more. Miguel Cabrera will be team MVP and a wealth of other outfielders may shake out decently if Jeff can stay on top of who is having a good year amongst Brian Giles, Preston Wilson, Milton Bradley, and lots of bad Rockies. They may very well challenge Carl for second place. I can't decide who I like better right now.
NL - Kerfeld - Rabid Woofers
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
I've been listening to a lot of Deep Purple lately and "Space Truckin'" has been on my mind a lot. That's the song I think of when I think of Slave driving out west with all his stuff. And with this team's potential you'd be singing it too. "Come on! Come on! Come on! Let's GO Space Truckin'!"
Nice rotation, nephew! Hmmm. Who doesn't make the cut out of Ollie Perez, Jake Peavy, Mark Mulder, Javy Vazquez, Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, and Dontrelle Willis. My guess is Carpenter and Willis unless Vazquez or Mulder is hiding an injury. Easily the deepest and strongest rotation in the league. The bullpen is not incredible but should be fine. What about the offense?
Slave snapped up my unheld Michael Barrett at catcher. I kind of forgot to consider position scarcity in picking my holds. Derek Lee and Marcus Giles are strong on the right side of the infield. David Wright and Khalil Greene are strong on the left side. This doesn't count backups D'Angelo Jimenez and Jose Reyes. The outfield has JD Drew, Carlos Lee, Luis Gonzalez, Brad Wilkerson, and Moises Alou. Wow. No holes anywhere.
This is a very good, very deep team that will blow away their division and probably dominate into the next decade. That's my prediction.
Come on! Come on! Come on! Let's Go Space Truckin'!
NL - Kerfeld - Gas House Gang
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
Battling Slave will be Ken's returning two-time division champs the Gas House Gang. Can they compete? Let's look.
The rotation might be great if everything breaks right. Jason Schmidt is the bomb. Odalis Perez, Kerry Wood, John Smoltz are all question marks who might be top tier pitchers. Tom Glavine doesn't hurt you as a Number Five. Good stuff but not in the same class as Slave's. The bullpens are comparable. Can Kenny catch him offensively?
Albert Pujols is better than anyone on Slave's team, or really the league. But what about the harder positions to find offense? One thing that will not work in Ken's favor this year is he had a lot of guys who outperformed expectations last year and will likely regress: Lyle Overbay, Johnny Estrada, and Jack Wilson particularly. Chipper Jones at third gives Ken better offense than Slave at the corners but Slave is stronger up the middle. IF Ken Griffey Jr. miraculously has an All-Star full season, then an outfield of Griffey, Jason Bay and Austin Kearns can keep up with Slave. But I think that is a dubious threat.
All in all, Ken's boys will have a decent season but still fall just short.
NL - Kerfeld - Crooked K's
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Lou's back for another season of annoying people during the draft. He wisely held Rick Ankiel, knowing that an All-Star corner outfielder in 2008 will come in handy, and drafted a ton of pitchers to wind up with FIFTEEN after the dust settled. Are any of them good?
AJ Burnett, Josh Beckett, and Jerome Williams are the youngsters at the top and Kris Benson may put it all together under Rick Peterson. That's a good start for now and the future. Veterans Al Leiter, Mike Hampton, and Victor Zambrano will amuse. The bullpen will be strong with Armando Benitez and Brad Lidge.
Offensively, a passel of catchers starring Mike Piazza will be a plus. The left side of Aramis Ramirez and a healthy Nomar will be embarrassed by a left side with Junior Spivey and Jeff Conine, after the inevitable season-ending Nick Johnson injury. Adam Dunn, Andruw Jones, and Pat Burrell will provide a lot of firepower.
The team isn't bad but isn't quite on a level with Ken or Slave. And the future should be an improvement especially with the maturation of the rotation.
NL - Kerfeld - Smoking Guns
Short-Term Outlook: C Long-Term Outlook: D
Last off-season, Matt adopted a "win now" approach and didn't hold on to some of the young players he'd drafted with an eye to the future. With three strong teams in the division, "win now" may have to wait a while.
The rotation is the weakest in the division with a lot of innings-munchers who won't be with the team in three years. Greg Maddux, Corey Lidle, Eric Milton, Adam Eaton, Bret Tomko, Brett Myers, Estaban Loaiza, Brian Lawrence will have decent major league seasons but can't be called aces in such a small league as ours. The bullpen has a gimpy Eric Gagne and some possible ugly lines from Dans Kolb and Graves.
The core of the offense has some upside and servicable backups if there are injuries but no true superstars: Mike Lieberthal, Adam LaRoche, Ray Durham, Mike Lowell, Kaz Matsui, Juan Pierre, Shawn Green, and Jason Lane won't hurt you but without a real superstar they don't have the firepower of the other teams in the division. Superstars are what win this league and possible future superstars, before they become superstars, are how to win for the future.
Wednesday, March 23, 2005
Pre-Season Pre-Dick-tions
Well, it has been extremely slow at work, so even though I usually try to avoid doing predictions since they make people mad, I'm going to go ahead and do some to kill time.
AL - Fielder - Cursed Bambinos
Short-Term Outlook: B. Long-Term Outlook: C
The Bambis took a hit in the off-season, losing Mark Mulder and with injury issues swirling around Curt Schilling and stronger competition in the division, I don't think they will repeat as champions.
The rotation has only one guy I like, really, in Schilling. People at the YES Network are going on at how great Carl Pavano is going to be, but he's going to have to prove it to me. Wakefield is servicable but I think Moyer and Lohse are gonig to be terrible. If Schilling doesn't throw 200 innings, I don't see a .500 record, despite the offense. The bullpen looks to be league average.
The infield looks a bit odd, with two good shortstops in Crosby and Young, a good backup in Figgins at 2B and a bad 3B in Hinske. Ortiz rules, yes. Behind him are two bad hitters in Erstad and Minky. Catcher might have some problems if Lopez goes down with only Mirabelli and Flaherty, two backups to back him up. It seems like Young or Crosby will have to play out of position to get their bat into the lineup. But there is very little depth here. The outfield is good and deep with ManRam, Anderson, Nixon, Kotsay, and Stewart seeming to be the top guys. The extra, or worst defender (Hey ManRam!) should DH. All in all, it should be a servicable offense with some funny defense and not a lot of depth.
This is a veteran team too, without a lot of projected younger stars. For this year, I'm predicting third place in their division. Why, when they won last year? Gut feeling.
AL - Fielder - Whistles Go Woo
Short-Term Outlook: B. Long-Term Outlook: B
Lou is back at the helm and hopefully paying attention this year. The offense is going to crush the ball, obviously. He's got another year out of Delgado and a possible healthy year for Mauer. Sheffield, Guerrero, and Wells could be the AL starting All-Star OF. Hudson at 2B is decent. Renteria at SS is a plus and if Joe Crede is your 9th batter, that's not the worst thing in the world. DH can come from some below-average first-basemen and OFs like Palmeiro or Carlos Pena or Juan Rivera. We're looking at a lot of runs scored. But what about the pitching?
Taking a flyer on Kevin Brown was a good idea, as he'll have the best chance to be an ace on the staff. Arroyo will be above-average. Sabathia will hopefully not eat his own arm, Gil Meche could be league average and Jaret Wright might not be the worst free-agent signing in Yankee history. Still, that's a lot of question marks with ugly answers backing them up. The bullpen is going to have to depend on some of those ugly answers like Ryan Franklin, until some supplemental drafts.
Longer-term, they have some younger pitchers that might be worthwhile, and Mauer might be a league MVP someday.
This season, I put them around the same level as Cursed Bambinos. Both have strong players and question marks but the power offense should carry more wins slightly. Second place.
AL - Fielder - Errant Shadows
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Last year's second place finishers look to take the next step up but I think the strength of the division is going to knock them down. A solid bullpen will be sorely leaned on by a weak back-end of the rotation with no big stars. Buehrle, Westbrook, Escobar should be solid but unspectacular while I think Washburn is headed for a fall. David Bush might be ok but with Batista moving to Toronto's bullpen leaves not a lot of wiggle room if there is an injury.
The offense is ok but can't compete with Lou's. Every position has a solid performer: Ichiro, Crawford, Maggs, Uribe, Koskie, Roberts, Sexson, and Varitek with Millar DHing or Broussard but no one of those guys can have a single impact like a Vlad or a ManRam. Still, the team is overrall pretty solid. I think it will be a tight race but the Shadows will fall behind Ken and Lou. The future brings Dallas McPherson and BJ Upton and a possible title.
AL - Fielder - Bingo's Fuzzy Puppies
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
That only leaves one spot left in the standings. How can I pick a basement dweller to go worst to first? One reason is 6 foot 11 and strikes out 250 guys a year. Adding Randy Johnson to an already talented rotation makes this the team to beat in the Fielder. Johnson and Mussina are the best 1-2 in the division and that doesn't even count Jeremy Bonderman and Zack Greinke who might be even better than Mussina this year. The bullpen looks mediocre, but really so what?
On offense, Slave has the best catcher in the league in Pudge and the best overall hitter, possibly, in A-Rod at third. Carlos Guillen was the best shortstop in the league last year according to most advanced metrics and someone from Iguchi/Cuddyer/Infante/Belliard will be a good 2B just by virtue of quantity of quality. That's not even counting the arrival of Ian Kinsler at some point. At first, Giambi is a question mark but even if he gets back a smidgen of his old value, that's a strong base. And if he sucks, 1Bmen are the easiest things to find and Slave has value to trade. OFers Damon, Reed, Bernie, Hidalgo, and even Podsednik with his good range are valuable. I don't see any major flaws here and he has many apparent future stars on the team. I think this year might be close, but will be the first of many Fielder championships for the Puppies.
AL - Forster - Burninators
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: A
Two big hits to the rotation - the defections of Pedro and Hudson from the league, I think spell the end of the Burninators reign in the Forster but maybe not for too long.
The rotation still has Santana and Halladay. If Lopez can get off the roller-coaster, he should be above average this year and youngsters like Lackey, Ledezma, and Madritsch have a year to show if they will be good or not. Still, it's a step down from the heady times of two years ago. The bullpen could be terrible again and sabotage the team. Time will tell.
On offense, there is a young core of Chavez, Martinez, Morneau, and Hafner and above average guys Matsui and Boone. A lot will depend on getting good production on centerfielder David Dejesus. If he can put up a .375 obp, that would be good. Useful role-players fill out the rest of a heavily platoonable offense.
If things all fall right, I could win the division again, but I think it's too many ifs for this year. For the future, there are a lot of good looking young guys who are entering their peak years soon and not that many old guys so look for a return to form in 2006.
AL - Forster - Wookies
Short-Term Outlook: D Long-Term Outlook: D
MarkTeixeira is awesome. So is Keith Foulke. Moving on...
AL - Forster - Tri-Bonds
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
These guys looked primed for a one year run at a title. The rotation will be the best in the division with Zito, Radke, Clement, Wells all putting up good numbers and whatever schmuck takes the 5-slot getting league-average stats. The bullpen will be decent with Rivera anchoring them down. The offense gets superior production at tough positions in Posada, Jeter, and Soriano. Is Mora fora real? If so, he and Konerko provide more pop. The outfield is not so fresh with a few decent fourth outfielders like Byrnes and Ibanez and... blech. Are the outfielders going to bat 7-9? Who is going to play center? If the overall defense doesn't hamstring the rotation these guys should win this year. The future has Delmon Young and the guy who jumps cars.
AL - Forster - Highway Kind
Short-Term Outlook: C Long-Term Outlook: B
Who gets the ball after Rich Harden? I mean, before Wade Miller gets back. If it is a combination of Colon, Contreras, Byrd, Rogers and Garland... p.u. Dan Meyer is already struggling in Spring Training and Brandon McCarthy might commission a rotation spot but is likely not ready to excel in the bigs. King Felix? Maybe the same thing. Still, in two years these guys will rule.
Bullpen... small but good.
A stellar infield will score a lot of runs - Blalock, Huff and Beltre can take a 3B and a DH spot and one of them has to suck it. Durazo maybe sits? Who knows? These guys are kind of susceptible to lefties too. Tejada and Bellhorn can balance that out and Kendall is solid. But the outfield is going to be expecting a return to form for Lew Ford and Aaron Rowand who may have had career years. Cruz and Dye are good filler but maybe Huff can play the outfield. At any rate, I think the rotation's issues are going to push them down to third. But look out for the future young guns.
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Well, it has been extremely slow at work, so even though I usually try to avoid doing predictions since they make people mad, I'm going to go ahead and do some to kill time.
AL - Fielder - Cursed Bambinos
Short-Term Outlook: B. Long-Term Outlook: C
The Bambis took a hit in the off-season, losing Mark Mulder and with injury issues swirling around Curt Schilling and stronger competition in the division, I don't think they will repeat as champions.
The rotation has only one guy I like, really, in Schilling. People at the YES Network are going on at how great Carl Pavano is going to be, but he's going to have to prove it to me. Wakefield is servicable but I think Moyer and Lohse are gonig to be terrible. If Schilling doesn't throw 200 innings, I don't see a .500 record, despite the offense. The bullpen looks to be league average.
The infield looks a bit odd, with two good shortstops in Crosby and Young, a good backup in Figgins at 2B and a bad 3B in Hinske. Ortiz rules, yes. Behind him are two bad hitters in Erstad and Minky. Catcher might have some problems if Lopez goes down with only Mirabelli and Flaherty, two backups to back him up. It seems like Young or Crosby will have to play out of position to get their bat into the lineup. But there is very little depth here. The outfield is good and deep with ManRam, Anderson, Nixon, Kotsay, and Stewart seeming to be the top guys. The extra, or worst defender (Hey ManRam!) should DH. All in all, it should be a servicable offense with some funny defense and not a lot of depth.
This is a veteran team too, without a lot of projected younger stars. For this year, I'm predicting third place in their division. Why, when they won last year? Gut feeling.
AL - Fielder - Whistles Go Woo
Short-Term Outlook: B. Long-Term Outlook: B
Lou is back at the helm and hopefully paying attention this year. The offense is going to crush the ball, obviously. He's got another year out of Delgado and a possible healthy year for Mauer. Sheffield, Guerrero, and Wells could be the AL starting All-Star OF. Hudson at 2B is decent. Renteria at SS is a plus and if Joe Crede is your 9th batter, that's not the worst thing in the world. DH can come from some below-average first-basemen and OFs like Palmeiro or Carlos Pena or Juan Rivera. We're looking at a lot of runs scored. But what about the pitching?
Taking a flyer on Kevin Brown was a good idea, as he'll have the best chance to be an ace on the staff. Arroyo will be above-average. Sabathia will hopefully not eat his own arm, Gil Meche could be league average and Jaret Wright might not be the worst free-agent signing in Yankee history. Still, that's a lot of question marks with ugly answers backing them up. The bullpen is going to have to depend on some of those ugly answers like Ryan Franklin, until some supplemental drafts.
Longer-term, they have some younger pitchers that might be worthwhile, and Mauer might be a league MVP someday.
This season, I put them around the same level as Cursed Bambinos. Both have strong players and question marks but the power offense should carry more wins slightly. Second place.
AL - Fielder - Errant Shadows
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: B
Last year's second place finishers look to take the next step up but I think the strength of the division is going to knock them down. A solid bullpen will be sorely leaned on by a weak back-end of the rotation with no big stars. Buehrle, Westbrook, Escobar should be solid but unspectacular while I think Washburn is headed for a fall. David Bush might be ok but with Batista moving to Toronto's bullpen leaves not a lot of wiggle room if there is an injury.
The offense is ok but can't compete with Lou's. Every position has a solid performer: Ichiro, Crawford, Maggs, Uribe, Koskie, Roberts, Sexson, and Varitek with Millar DHing or Broussard but no one of those guys can have a single impact like a Vlad or a ManRam. Still, the team is overrall pretty solid. I think it will be a tight race but the Shadows will fall behind Ken and Lou. The future brings Dallas McPherson and BJ Upton and a possible title.
AL - Fielder - Bingo's Fuzzy Puppies
Short-Term Outlook: A Long-Term Outlook: A
That only leaves one spot left in the standings. How can I pick a basement dweller to go worst to first? One reason is 6 foot 11 and strikes out 250 guys a year. Adding Randy Johnson to an already talented rotation makes this the team to beat in the Fielder. Johnson and Mussina are the best 1-2 in the division and that doesn't even count Jeremy Bonderman and Zack Greinke who might be even better than Mussina this year. The bullpen looks mediocre, but really so what?
On offense, Slave has the best catcher in the league in Pudge and the best overall hitter, possibly, in A-Rod at third. Carlos Guillen was the best shortstop in the league last year according to most advanced metrics and someone from Iguchi/Cuddyer/Infante/Belliard will be a good 2B just by virtue of quantity of quality. That's not even counting the arrival of Ian Kinsler at some point. At first, Giambi is a question mark but even if he gets back a smidgen of his old value, that's a strong base. And if he sucks, 1Bmen are the easiest things to find and Slave has value to trade. OFers Damon, Reed, Bernie, Hidalgo, and even Podsednik with his good range are valuable. I don't see any major flaws here and he has many apparent future stars on the team. I think this year might be close, but will be the first of many Fielder championships for the Puppies.
AL - Forster - Burninators
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: A
Two big hits to the rotation - the defections of Pedro and Hudson from the league, I think spell the end of the Burninators reign in the Forster but maybe not for too long.
The rotation still has Santana and Halladay. If Lopez can get off the roller-coaster, he should be above average this year and youngsters like Lackey, Ledezma, and Madritsch have a year to show if they will be good or not. Still, it's a step down from the heady times of two years ago. The bullpen could be terrible again and sabotage the team. Time will tell.
On offense, there is a young core of Chavez, Martinez, Morneau, and Hafner and above average guys Matsui and Boone. A lot will depend on getting good production on centerfielder David Dejesus. If he can put up a .375 obp, that would be good. Useful role-players fill out the rest of a heavily platoonable offense.
If things all fall right, I could win the division again, but I think it's too many ifs for this year. For the future, there are a lot of good looking young guys who are entering their peak years soon and not that many old guys so look for a return to form in 2006.
AL - Forster - Wookies
Short-Term Outlook: D Long-Term Outlook: D
MarkTeixeira is awesome. So is Keith Foulke. Moving on...
AL - Forster - Tri-Bonds
Short-Term Outlook: B Long-Term Outlook: C
These guys looked primed for a one year run at a title. The rotation will be the best in the division with Zito, Radke, Clement, Wells all putting up good numbers and whatever schmuck takes the 5-slot getting league-average stats. The bullpen will be decent with Rivera anchoring them down. The offense gets superior production at tough positions in Posada, Jeter, and Soriano. Is Mora fora real? If so, he and Konerko provide more pop. The outfield is not so fresh with a few decent fourth outfielders like Byrnes and Ibanez and... blech. Are the outfielders going to bat 7-9? Who is going to play center? If the overall defense doesn't hamstring the rotation these guys should win this year. The future has Delmon Young and the guy who jumps cars.
AL - Forster - Highway Kind
Short-Term Outlook: C Long-Term Outlook: B
Who gets the ball after Rich Harden? I mean, before Wade Miller gets back. If it is a combination of Colon, Contreras, Byrd, Rogers and Garland... p.u. Dan Meyer is already struggling in Spring Training and Brandon McCarthy might commission a rotation spot but is likely not ready to excel in the bigs. King Felix? Maybe the same thing. Still, in two years these guys will rule.
Bullpen... small but good.
A stellar infield will score a lot of runs - Blalock, Huff and Beltre can take a 3B and a DH spot and one of them has to suck it. Durazo maybe sits? Who knows? These guys are kind of susceptible to lefties too. Tejada and Bellhorn can balance that out and Kendall is solid. But the outfield is going to be expecting a return to form for Lew Ford and Aaron Rowand who may have had career years. Cruz and Dye are good filler but maybe Huff can play the outfield. At any rate, I think the rotation's issues are going to push them down to third. But look out for the future young guns.
Tuesday, March 01, 2005
Time to pull the starter? No Glory team may let fans decide
By Bennett Richardson, Contributor to The Christian Science Monitor
SILICON VALLEY — At Microsoft.Park@Silicon.Valley.com, baseball fans may soon get a way to tell a struggling pitcher to hit the showers that is far more effective than yelling at the TV.
Devotees of the Autoexec.Batsmen could soon decide whether to dump a pitcher through an online voting system that would display results on a stadium's center screen. For many A.B fans, this comes years too late after watching Russ Ortiz and Kevin Millwood for several seasons.
And the AL No Guts Wookies may allow viewers to watch players off-field in the dugout, the bullpen, or the locker room, simply through a click of the mouse as part of plans to Webcast games live. This would likely lessen the pain of watching them on the field.
Such gimmicks may appear to be a minor diversion from the serious business of pro ball. But these attempts to make the game more appealing are bold bids by Jeff Skilton, one of a new class of team owners, to reverse a sharp decline in the No Glory league's popularity since reversing the decline in his team's wins has not gone so well.
The idea of online voting to replace pitchers comes from Jeff's 5-year old son, Derek "Fletcher" Skilton. He made waves in baseball circles recently by saying that while coaches ought to get the final say in selecting which players to use, they should also consider the fans' wishes, which could be conveyed by online polls shown on computers in dugouts. He also recited the Gettysburg Address.
Whether such a system will be introduced remains uncertain, but the suggestion has created a buzz in the conservative world of No Glory baseball. David Cuccaro, another team owner and former parking attendant, scoffs at the plan. "That idea is nonsense," he says. "I finally figured out how to use my com-pu-ter to show up to the draft. Now I have to use one to manage my team? I hope they don't put beer in a com-pu-ter."
But he doesn't deny that No Glory baseball has slipped from the lofty mantle it occupied when he was "on" the field in the 1990s. "Young people are leaving baseball because the actual games played at stadiums have lost excitement," he says. "The tempo of games somehow needs to be sped up. I've suggested a pitch clock to the commissioner for years and years. But does he listen? No. He only talks to me when he wants to trade me Dante Bichette for Bobby Abreu. I HATE DANTE BICHETTE!!!"
Indeed, some fans point out that online voting would only slow things down more. Diehard fan Tony Cuccaro says the idea is a weak marketing ploy that wouldn't make the game more interesting. "In the end, coaches wouldn't listen to what the fans want anyway," he says. "Nobody ever listens to what I want. So I spit at them. Yorry Yake."
Professor Carl Zimring, fellow No Glory owner and an expert on the sociology of baseball fans at Oberlin College in Ohio, is also skeptical. "While new ideas are effective as an advertisement" for the game, he says, viewer voting to replace pitchers would be extremely difficult to regulate properly. "Still, it would have been amusing when Burninator's manager Grady Little strode out to the mound in last year's AL No Guts Game 6 to pull Johan Santana in the 6th if the
entire scoreboard flashed, 'NOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!'"
But some welcome the radical move. "It would be a very interesting idea if they could actually implement it," says fellow owner Matt Streeter, adding that he can recall a number of instances when a pitcher in bad form should have been sent off earlier. "I would probably take part if they introduced it," he says. "Like right after I drafted half my pitchers."
These ideas come amid hard times for the No Glory League's popularity. Baseball's popularity has fallen as other sports, like soccer, which kicked off here in 1993, draw more fans. "Oh yeah!"
said Lou Hall, the No Glory Soccer League's only team owner. "Come to papa!"
"Considering its long history both before and after the Gulf War, its power of influence has become relatively small because of a multiplication of (other types of) entertainment," says Professor Zimring. "And small market teams like the Batsmen have suffered the most."
As Skilton's top homegrown talent like John Smoltz and Michael Barrett have moved on to winning teams, empty stadium seats have become more obvious. While Smoltz has won acclaim with the Gas House Gang, his old team, the Batsmen, recorded last year their worst average TV ratings since the league's beginning in 1995. The Batsmen's top average TV ratings would routinely kick butt on the Les Howard Entertainment Showcase on Public Access but those days are long gone.
The decline in baseball also stems from the public's weariness with the commissioner Mike Cuccaro's administrative organization, which is seen as stifling change. A number of bribery scandals have led to calls for reform of the draft system, for example the "Wagner Situation" of 1995, while problems with the free-agent system and inflated attendance figures at ballparks have also hurt the game's image.
But one unorthodox owner is determined to burnish that image. Unlike the railway firms or newspaper conglomerates that have dominated baseball here for the past 10 years, Skilton runs Internet companies. He is considered the new kid on the block by other club owners, but his entry has been welcomed by the public, eager to see their own teams pad their win totals.
Since Skilton and son have been admitted to the clubby status of team owner, they have pressed for reforms to the way professional baseball is run. "Fletcher" has urged stadiums to release actual attendance numbers while his team's attendance has urged him to release actual ballplayers. Last year, official figures, which include season tickets, showed that a crowd of 48,000 attended a game at the 32,000 capacity Homer Dome. Commissioner Cuccaro's number cooking was plain for all to see.
Legend has it that his brother Ralph Cuccaro, an American newspaper carrier on Long Island, introduced baseball and gambling to the league's founder and commissioner in about 1973. Owning baseball teams quickly became popular at the high school and college level, and the yearly national Yahoo tournament still rivals the NCAA Tournament as a gambling event. Commissioner Cuccaro's first team was formed in 1988 with J&J Sports, and by the 1990s, baseball was the dominant obsession in the family, developing a special place at holiday gatherings.
Purists say that an opportunity for fans to alter game play via the Internet not only flies in the face of tradition, but raises philosophical questions about the nature of sport in general.
One key element that would be lost, they say, is the idea that athletes must face their opponents alone, acting in the arena according to their own wits, without help from outsiders. Just like on Yu-gi-oh!
"This interesting facet of sports would be destroyed" if viewers were so directly involved, says Stacy Hoffman, editor of Ethnology, a journal of anthropology. "And believe me, we would have a mass murder on our hands if some 14-year old idiots with a mouse took out Johan Santana and put David Riske anywhere near a pitching mound for the Burninators."
Copyright 2005, The Christian Science Monitor
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By Bennett Richardson, Contributor to The Christian Science Monitor
SILICON VALLEY — At Microsoft.Park@Silicon.Valley.com, baseball fans may soon get a way to tell a struggling pitcher to hit the showers that is far more effective than yelling at the TV.
Devotees of the Autoexec.Batsmen could soon decide whether to dump a pitcher through an online voting system that would display results on a stadium's center screen. For many A.B fans, this comes years too late after watching Russ Ortiz and Kevin Millwood for several seasons.
And the AL No Guts Wookies may allow viewers to watch players off-field in the dugout, the bullpen, or the locker room, simply through a click of the mouse as part of plans to Webcast games live. This would likely lessen the pain of watching them on the field.
Such gimmicks may appear to be a minor diversion from the serious business of pro ball. But these attempts to make the game more appealing are bold bids by Jeff Skilton, one of a new class of team owners, to reverse a sharp decline in the No Glory league's popularity since reversing the decline in his team's wins has not gone so well.
The idea of online voting to replace pitchers comes from Jeff's 5-year old son, Derek "Fletcher" Skilton. He made waves in baseball circles recently by saying that while coaches ought to get the final say in selecting which players to use, they should also consider the fans' wishes, which could be conveyed by online polls shown on computers in dugouts. He also recited the Gettysburg Address.
Whether such a system will be introduced remains uncertain, but the suggestion has created a buzz in the conservative world of No Glory baseball. David Cuccaro, another team owner and former parking attendant, scoffs at the plan. "That idea is nonsense," he says. "I finally figured out how to use my com-pu-ter to show up to the draft. Now I have to use one to manage my team? I hope they don't put beer in a com-pu-ter."
But he doesn't deny that No Glory baseball has slipped from the lofty mantle it occupied when he was "on" the field in the 1990s. "Young people are leaving baseball because the actual games played at stadiums have lost excitement," he says. "The tempo of games somehow needs to be sped up. I've suggested a pitch clock to the commissioner for years and years. But does he listen? No. He only talks to me when he wants to trade me Dante Bichette for Bobby Abreu. I HATE DANTE BICHETTE!!!"
Indeed, some fans point out that online voting would only slow things down more. Diehard fan Tony Cuccaro says the idea is a weak marketing ploy that wouldn't make the game more interesting. "In the end, coaches wouldn't listen to what the fans want anyway," he says. "Nobody ever listens to what I want. So I spit at them. Yorry Yake."
Professor Carl Zimring, fellow No Glory owner and an expert on the sociology of baseball fans at Oberlin College in Ohio, is also skeptical. "While new ideas are effective as an advertisement" for the game, he says, viewer voting to replace pitchers would be extremely difficult to regulate properly. "Still, it would have been amusing when Burninator's manager Grady Little strode out to the mound in last year's AL No Guts Game 6 to pull Johan Santana in the 6th if the
entire scoreboard flashed, 'NOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!'"
But some welcome the radical move. "It would be a very interesting idea if they could actually implement it," says fellow owner Matt Streeter, adding that he can recall a number of instances when a pitcher in bad form should have been sent off earlier. "I would probably take part if they introduced it," he says. "Like right after I drafted half my pitchers."
These ideas come amid hard times for the No Glory League's popularity. Baseball's popularity has fallen as other sports, like soccer, which kicked off here in 1993, draw more fans. "Oh yeah!"
said Lou Hall, the No Glory Soccer League's only team owner. "Come to papa!"
"Considering its long history both before and after the Gulf War, its power of influence has become relatively small because of a multiplication of (other types of) entertainment," says Professor Zimring. "And small market teams like the Batsmen have suffered the most."
As Skilton's top homegrown talent like John Smoltz and Michael Barrett have moved on to winning teams, empty stadium seats have become more obvious. While Smoltz has won acclaim with the Gas House Gang, his old team, the Batsmen, recorded last year their worst average TV ratings since the league's beginning in 1995. The Batsmen's top average TV ratings would routinely kick butt on the Les Howard Entertainment Showcase on Public Access but those days are long gone.
The decline in baseball also stems from the public's weariness with the commissioner Mike Cuccaro's administrative organization, which is seen as stifling change. A number of bribery scandals have led to calls for reform of the draft system, for example the "Wagner Situation" of 1995, while problems with the free-agent system and inflated attendance figures at ballparks have also hurt the game's image.
But one unorthodox owner is determined to burnish that image. Unlike the railway firms or newspaper conglomerates that have dominated baseball here for the past 10 years, Skilton runs Internet companies. He is considered the new kid on the block by other club owners, but his entry has been welcomed by the public, eager to see their own teams pad their win totals.
Since Skilton and son have been admitted to the clubby status of team owner, they have pressed for reforms to the way professional baseball is run. "Fletcher" has urged stadiums to release actual attendance numbers while his team's attendance has urged him to release actual ballplayers. Last year, official figures, which include season tickets, showed that a crowd of 48,000 attended a game at the 32,000 capacity Homer Dome. Commissioner Cuccaro's number cooking was plain for all to see.
Legend has it that his brother Ralph Cuccaro, an American newspaper carrier on Long Island, introduced baseball and gambling to the league's founder and commissioner in about 1973. Owning baseball teams quickly became popular at the high school and college level, and the yearly national Yahoo tournament still rivals the NCAA Tournament as a gambling event. Commissioner Cuccaro's first team was formed in 1988 with J&J Sports, and by the 1990s, baseball was the dominant obsession in the family, developing a special place at holiday gatherings.
Purists say that an opportunity for fans to alter game play via the Internet not only flies in the face of tradition, but raises philosophical questions about the nature of sport in general.
One key element that would be lost, they say, is the idea that athletes must face their opponents alone, acting in the arena according to their own wits, without help from outsiders. Just like on Yu-gi-oh!
"This interesting facet of sports would be destroyed" if viewers were so directly involved, says Stacy Hoffman, editor of Ethnology, a journal of anthropology. "And believe me, we would have a mass murder on our hands if some 14-year old idiots with a mouse took out Johan Santana and put David Riske anywhere near a pitching mound for the Burninators."
Copyright 2005, The Christian Science Monitor
