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Wednesday, June 29, 2005

More "Fun" with Pythagoras, Randy Edition

Randy was insistent that any gains he had in the AL were more than made up for in the NL. Later he back-tracked and said he was owed at least 5 wins. So, let's run the numbers!




Kruk W L pct. Pyth-W Pyth-L Pth-pct
1 Homers 52 23 0.693 52 23 0.689
7 Batsmen 32 43 0.427 35 40 0.464
5 Kings 32 43 0.427 32 43 0.428
3 Atarijin 30 45 0.400 30 45 0.400

Kerfeld W L pct. Pyth-W Pyth-L Pth-pct
2 Woofers 46 29 0.613 46 29 0.607
6 Ks 43 32 0.573 45 30 0.598
4 Gang 34 41 0.453 32 43 0.423
8 Guns 31 44 0.413 30 45 0.396

It appears Randy is spectacularly wrong about this. Not only is his record right in line with his first order Pythagorean projection but even the percentage is identical to the hundredth decimal place. The winners so far in the NL are Ken at +2 and Matt at +1. The losers are Jeff at -3 and Lou at -2. The discrepency in totals is likely due to rounding errors. So, in conclusion: suck it, Atarijin.


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Tuesday, June 28, 2005

More "Fun" with Pythagoras, Extra Bitter Edition


Fielder W L pct. Pyth-W Pyth-L Pth-pct
5 Errant 47 28 0.627 49 26 0.654
1 Cursed 35 40 0.467 37 38 0.488
7 Bingo's 34 41 0.453 35 40 0.471
3 whisltes 34 41 0.453 36 39 0.476

Forster W L pct. Pyth-W Pyth-L Pth-pct
6 TriBonds 46 29 0.613 39 36 0.519
8 Highway 39 36 0.520 36 39 0.480
2 Burnintr 34 41 0.453 41 34 0.546
4 Wookies 31 44 0.413 28 47 0.376

After another couple of weeks of blow-out victories and squeaker losses, we are getting more variance with actual records in the AL vs. first order Pythagorean standings. It's nice to see that Matt's great season is no fluke and his best-in-the-league record is actually less than his Pythagorean. In fact all of the Fielder seems to be on the short-end of the stick against the other division, with one notable exception. The losers so far are myself (-7), Matt (-2), Ken (-2), Lou (-2), and Slave (-1). the winners are Randy (+7), Carl (+3), and Jeff (+3). It will be interesting to see if this balances out in the second half of the year.


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Wednesday, June 22, 2005

AL Impartial All-Stars:

Let's employ the same tools for the AL. Though for the sake of the Oakland A's we'll include pitchers with VORPs 10 and up instead of 15:

ANA: Vlaud (of) 26.8, Spastic Colon (p) 25.3, Washburn (p) 20.4, Lackey (p) 17.5, Chone Figgins (2b) 16.7, Garret Anderson (of) 15.3, Byrd (p) 14.2, Erstad (1b) 11.5, Shields (p) 10.6
Wow, pretty crap offense so far for the Haloes.
BAL: Tejada (ss) 41.6, Bip Roberts (2b) 41.5, Mora (3b) 23.3, Bedard (p) 22.6, Brucie (p) 15.9, BJ Ryan (p) 14.2, J Gibbons (dh) 14.0, Jave (c) 11.1
Tejada just passed Bip in VORP and will probably stay ahead of him.
BOS: Papi (dh) 29.6, Tek (c) 28.1, Damon (of) 25.4, Clement (p) 21.9, ManRam (of) 17.7, Timlin (p) 16.6, Trot (of) 15.8, Myooller (3b) 12.5, We Can Be Edgar (ss) 10.8
Wow, who knew Trot was that close to ManRam in value so far or that Damon was so far ahead!
ShiteSox: Buehrle (p) 33.7, Garland (p) 21.8, Garcia (p) 20.1, Konerko (1b) 17.2, Contreras (p) 13.9, Politte (p) 13.2, Iguchi (2b) 12.4, Dye (of) 12.3, Cotts (p) 10.6, Hermanshead (p) 10.4
Yeah, it's the offense, Joe.
CLE: Hafner (dh) 22.8, Millwood (p) 18.7, Sizemore (of) 17.6, C Lee (p) 17.2, Jhonny Prealta (ss) 14.6, Rhodes (p) 14.0, Belliard (2b) 13.6, Riske (p) 12.6, Would You Betancourt (p) 11.4, Coco Lopez (of) 10.9
Wow, I didn't know Jhonny was having a good yaer.
DET: Angry Inge (3b) 23.7, Glass Guillen (ss) 23.0, Jason Johnson (p) 22.9, Bonderman (p) 18.6, Pudge (c) 17.1, RonDL (of) 15.0, Dmitri (dh) 13.1
Color me wrong about Inge. And Guillen while we're piling on.
KC: Sweeney (1b) 17.1, DJ Carrasco (p) 16.1, Emil Brown (of) 15.7, Sisco (p) 13.8, Stairs (dh) 13.7, Graffanino (2b) 11.6
Can I borrow a dictionary? I want to look up "your team sucks."
MIN: Santana (p) 27.1, Silva (p) 21.6, Torii (of) 18.9, Mauer (c) 16.2, Crain (p) 15.3, Jacque (of) 12.4, Shannon (of) 12.3, Radke (p) 11.8, Lew (dh) 11.5, Morneau (dh) 11.2
Well, it's a balanced offense. And a sexually ambiguously named outfield.
Junkees: GA-Rod (3b) 41.2, Stupid Twitching Bat Brigade (of) 28.4, Face of Baseball (ss) 28.3, Pile On Posada (c) 21.7, Unit (p) 21.6, Godzilla (of) 19.4 (that's right), Moose (p) 17.0, Flash (p) 10.7
Nada commento.
OAK: Street (p) 14.4, Ducks (p) 11.8, Harden (p) 11.6, Kielty (of) 10.3
w.o.w. Stick that in your Moneybook, Billy Bean you gay general manager!
SEA: Ibanez (dh) 26.3, Ichiro! (of) 17.1, Sexson the Beach (1b) 15.7, some guy named Michael Morse (ss) 12.0, Randy Losee (of) 11.0
Michael Morse has only had 66 plate appearances and has more VORP than the best Unathletic.
TB: Cantu (3b) 19.8, Lugo (ss) 18.3, Damon Hollins (of) 14.6, Crawford (of) 12.2, Steroid Sanchez (of) 11.7
Anything you Cantu, Lucango better. Hmmm. Good one.
TEX: Rogers (p) 37.7, Scoriano (2b) 27.9, Texasarea (1b) 26.8, Michael Young (ss) 25.8, Chris Young (p) 20.6, Mench (of) 20.2, Dellucci (of) 19.9, Blalock (3b) 15.1
Oh, HERE is where all the good players are in the AL West!
TOR: Halladay (p) 40.5, Chacin (p) 20.4, Hillenbrand (1b) 19.6, Pete Walker (p) 17.8, Hill (3b) 15.7, Hillzaun (c) 10.4
The Hill's are alive with crap.

OK let's do the simple folk first - right off the top. We must take Halladay, Rogers, Buehrle, Santana as pitchers so far. We have to take Tejada, Bip Roberts, Ga-Rod, Papi, Sheffield, Jeter, Tek, Soriano, Tex, Vlaud, Ibanez, Michael Young, and Damon. What does that get us:

1b/dh: Papi (BOS), Teixiera (TEX), Ibanez (SEA)
2b: Bip (BAL), Soriano (TEX)
3b: Ga-Rod (NY)
ss: Jeter (NY), Young (TEX)
of: Sheffield (NY), Vlaud (ANA), Damon (BOS)
c: Tek (BOS)
p: Halladay (TOR), Rogers (TEX), Buehrle (CHA), Santana (MIN)

We get 5 more pitchers, 1 c, 2 of, 1 3b, and one "extra". Teams that are not represented so far are only CLE, DET, KC, and OAK.
OAK is terrible. Huston Street is their best so he joins the pitching staff.
On DET, Inge is the next highest 3b anyway so he is in.
On CLE we can either take Hafner as the floater or Millwood in a pitching slot. On KC we can either take Sweeney as the floater or Carrasco in a pitching slot. Sweeney is on the DL I think so let's solve the problem by taking both Sweeney and Hafner.
We have 4 pitching slots left. The next highest pitchers are Bartolo Colon, Jason Johnson, Erik Bedard (DL - extra pick!), Matt Clement, and Jon Garland.
Posada is the next catcher and the next outfielders are Mench and Dellucci.
For fun we can add hometowner Carlos Guillen and DL him too. So our two All-Star teams are:

AL
c: Varitek, Posada
1b/dh: Ortiz, Teixiera, Ibanez, Hafner
2b: Roberts, Soriano
ss: Tejada, Jeter
3b: Rodriguez, Inge
of: Sheffield, Guerrero, Damon, Mench, Dellucci
p: Halladay, Rogers, Buehrle, Santana, Colon, Johnson, Clement, Garland, Street
dl: Sweeney, Guillen, Bedard

NL
c: Hernandez, Barrett
1b: Lee, Pujols, Johnson, Delgado
2b: Kent, Counsell
ss: Lopez, Vizquel
3b: Wright, Ramirez
of: Abreu, Cabrera, Bay, Clark, Giles
p: Willis, Clemens, Oswalt, Martinez, Myers, Peavy, Smoltz, Redman, Carpenter
dl: Barmes

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Tuesday, June 21, 2005

Impartial All-Stars - NL

OK I am going to see if we can figure out a purely 2005 performance-based All-Star Team using all the rules of representation but basing on VORP from BP. First lets look at the leaders from each team, 10 VORP or higher for hitters, 15 VORP or higher for pitchers:

ARI: Webb (p) 24.4, The Freak (of) 22.9, Tony Clark?? (1b) 21.7, Craig Counsell (2b) 20.4, Troy Glaus (3b) 18.4, Estes ugh (p) 15.7, Seen Green (of) 10.0
Ugh. Not a lot of options here.
ATL: Schmoltz (p) 25.6, Hamp-Ton (p) 25.0, Andruw (of) 22.0, Chipper (3b) 17.1, Hudson (p) 17.1, Marcus Giles (2b) 16.7, Wilson Betemit? (ss) 14.1, Johnny Estrada (c) 12.2
Wow, who would have thought the Freak was beating Andruw?
CHN: DeeLee (1b) 61.2 woof, Aramis (3b) 22.0, Z (p) 21.6, Rusch (p) 21.0, Stupid Burnitz (of) 17.2, Prior (p) 16.6, Michael "not held" Barrett (c) 14.8
DEELEE MVP!!!
CIN: Dunn Dunn (of) 26.2, Felipe Lopez (ss) 24.4, Joe Randa (3b) 19.1, All-Century Whiffey (of) 18.4, Casey (1b) 17.2, Aaron You Rang? (p) 17.2, Ryan "Bay Trading" Freel (2b?) 17.1, Wily Mo! (of) 12.5
How does this team suck so much? Is Milton THAT BAD?
COL: Deer Barmes (ss) 20.1
He can get an honorary mention. What's up with Helton??
FLO: Dontrelle (p) 40.5, Delgado (1b) 37.9, Cabrera (of) 30.3, MOEHLER? (p) 24.3, Beckett (p) 19.1, Nipple Rings (p) 17.9, Castijjo (2b) 16.7, LoDucker (c) 12.7, AGon (ss) 12.3, Juancernacionen (of) 11.6
Remember when Juanceranatiocon was having a good year? What happened to Beckett?
HOU: Rocket (p) 43.5, Oswalt (p) 33.2, Pet it (p) 20.4, Ensberg (3b) 20.1, Biggio (2b) 14.3
Wow, Ensberg, really? I never catch up with teams I don't follow.
LA: Get Bent (2b) 28.2, JDBoo (of) 22.6, Penny (p) 16.5, Mil-ton (of) 16.2, Olamadeo Saynze (1b) 13.4, Antonio Perez (3b) 10.8, Izturis (ss) 10.1
I never thought I'd have a blog with Saenz's name in it more than ever.
MIL: Brady Clark (of) 25.3, CeeLee (of) 24.5, Capuano (p) 22.2, Victor Santos (p) 21.6, Overpay (1b) 20.0, Bill Hall?? (ss) 20.0
CEELEE MVP!!! The unheralded - and unowned, I think - Brady Clark!
NY: Pedro (p) 33.0, David Wrong (3b) 24.6, Cuccaromon (of) 20.6, Floyd "Hey Valentine!" (of) 18.0, Heil man! (p) 15.5, Pizza (c) 14.1, dishonrable mention: Beltran 8.2
Who would have guessed at the way the outfielders lined up 1-2-3?
PHI: Abububububu (of) 43.1, Brett Myers (p) 35.9, the Bat (of) 25.4, Utterly (2b) 21.8, Kenny Lofton (of) 18.2, Rolens (ss) 15.7, Polanco (2b) - moved on his 11.0 (16.5 total)
Abububububububu!!
PIT: Baywatch (of) 31.1, Red Man (p) 28.6, Mackowack (3b) 19.9 that's right, DaryleWardSucks.com (1b) 17.6, Dave "AK" Williams (p) 15.3, Lawton (of) 12.7
I wish Mackowack makes the team but I doubt it.
SD: Peavy (p) 30.2, Giles (of) 28.2, Klesko's Face (of) 17.5, Ramen Hernandez (c) 14.1, Dave "biggest SB in history" Roberts (of) 11.6
I wish it was your face!
SF: Cap'n Peehands (of) 19.9 that's right, Omar! (ss) 15.1, Jason Ellison (of) 14.0, some guy named "Lance Niekro" (1b) 10.7
Ugh. Trlicek.
STL: Pooholes (1b) 43.5, Carpenter in to nail it down (p) 28.4, Reggie "Jackson, Deion" Sanders (of) 22.5, Ed-Monds (of) 22.4, Eck-Gamer (ss) 20.0, Morris (p) 19.3, Markee (p) 16.4, Grudzie (2b) 16.0, Wal-ker (of) 11.1.
Sorry Rolen.
WAS: The Stick (1b) 30.9, Livian (p) 27.1, John "f*ing Carl" Patterson (p) 21.1, Lowyza (p) 18.9, Jose Guillen (of) 16.4, Wilkillyerson (of) 16.3, Ryan Church (of) 16.2, Chad Cordero (p) 15.6, Vidro (2b) 10.3
As in "WAS" not so good offense.

So, let's be generous and only have a 9-man pitching staff if we can stand it. That gives us 16 hitters. Two at every position with maybe one less outfielder for a good hitter somewhere else, like 1B. Also we can get an "extra" selection with a DL'd pick like Barmes since the rest of the Rockies suck.

At 1B we must take Lee and Pujols. Delgado only slightly drops off to Nick the Stick.
At OF we must take Abububu, Jason Bay, and Cabrera. The next few are Giles, Dunn, Burrell, Clark, CeeLee.
At 2B Kent really stands out. Counsell makes the top 25 overall and can fulfill an obligation over Utley.
At 3B Wright really stands out. Ensberg and Aramis are close to each other.
At SS FELIPE LOPEZ stands out. We can name Barmes and also take stupid Eckstein or BILL HALL to fulfill the Brewcrew.
At C Barrett, Ramen, and Pizza are all close together.
At P we must have Pedro, Rocket, D-Train, Myers, Oswalt and Peavy.

How does this shake out?
ARI: Counsell-2b
ATL: hmmmm
CHN: Lee-1b
CIN: Lopez-ss
COL: Barmes-ss (DL)
FLO: Dontrelle-p, Cabrera-of
HOU: Rocket-p, Oswalt-p
LA: Kent-2b
MIL: hmmm
NY: Pedro-p, Wright-3b
PHI: Abreu-of, Myers-p
PIT: Bay-of
SD: Peavy-p
SF: hmmm
STL: Pujols-1b
WAS: hmmm

OK we still have 2 c's, 3 p's, 2 of's, 1 1b, 1 3b, 1 ss to fill
Plus teams ATL, MIL, SF, WAS are not represented.

Let's take
MIL: Clark-of
WAS: Johnson-1b
ATL: Smoltz-p
SF: Vizquel-ss
and fulfill the obligations and then take the best of who is left. That's:
SD: Giles-of, Hernandez-c
CHN: Ramirez-3b, Barrett-c
PIT: Redman-p
STL: Carpenter-p

And I'm sticking with it!

Wait, maybe the teams get 26. I can't remember. If so, here comes Carlos Delgado.

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Good Sportsmanship
Julio Lugo of the Burninators was caught stealing in the 6th inning of a game against the Highway Kind. The score at that point was 15-0 Burninators.

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Monday, June 20, 2005

Joe Morgan + Smart Ball = Head Explosions

I watched the entire Dodgeridoo-Shite Sox game on ESPN Sunday Night last night and I thought Joe Morgan was going to send me into a schitzoid murder spree. If I hadn't been trying to finish a painting and didn't have work in the morning, I would have tried to turn that negative into a positive by creating the Joe Morgan Drinking Game (Shite Sox edition):

The next time the Shite Sox are on the Game of the Week, please enjoy this drinking game.

Take a drink whenever Joe Morgan:


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Sunday, June 19, 2005

Fox Sports

I'm watching Cardinals-DRays for who knows what reason on the computer today. Maybe it's so I can listen to the announcers go on and on about what a bad baserunner Cantu is and how quality vets like Abraham Nunez and John Mabry could teach them things. It's Fox Sports Midwest. Watching games on mlb.tv is funny because sometimes they keep the audio on during the commercial breaks and don't show commercials. That's the case today so when they are coming up with an establishing shot, like two palm trees, you hear the announcer say, "Is the one on the right the one Tom Mees was halfway up last night?" (drunk).

Anyway, Fox Sports traditionally likes to show everything except the baseball game. There was a loud heckler in the crowd and they kept showing him - not once per inning, not once per batter, but in between EVERY ACTUAL PITCH. Most of the time he's just sitting there or sipping his beer. He's just some guy at the game.

They do this stupid thing where people can send in "E-mails" on their "computers" to the announcers. They read one email on the air and it said, "Stop showing the heckler." They laughed about that and then continued to cut to this guy at every second that the ball isn't live.

Fox "markets" baseball with the idea that baseball is boring and they need to spice it up. You know what is boring? Showing a guy sitting in a chair. If instead they employed some announcers and directors and researchers who actually liked baseball there are a million interesting things to pick up on and talk about during a game. Just look at any decent baseball blog that has game chatter.

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Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Numbrer!!!!

Well I got a call last night that I wish I wasn't half asleep for because it was one of the funnier Scoresheet related things ever.

We're always joking about how Scoresheet hates Lou because he sends in lineups that say things like:
The Fire, LF
The Future, 3B
with no numbers. And how he always drafts and sends me hold lists in the most annoying way possible.

Since Lou is on the snailmail results system he got the June 6 results just yesterday and saw to his dismay that his starting 1B and lead-off hitter was not the #402 Nick Johnson of the .446 OBP and .534 SLG, but instead was an out-of-position #346 CHARLES Johnson of the .327 OBP and .283 SLG who has just been released by the Devil Rays. CJ also contributed 3 errors at 1B for Lou that week and because he didn't see the lineup snafu until now, he got CJ for another week.

Lou is going to try to smooth things over with Scoresheet to get his lineup corrected for this week's games. He doesn't remember if he submitted a lineup with no numbrers or if he accidentally put the numbrer in wrong himself. Also, he just now paid half his bill so he might not be too high on their happy list already and might not be in a big hurry to correct it.

I played Lou both this past week and the week before and I remember thinking it was weird that CJ was playing 1B (and making errors on consecutive batters in extras) but I didn't really think about it. I assumed it happened because he ran out of players or never submitted a lineup.

All in all, pretty funny.

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Tuesday, June 07, 2005

"Fun" with Pythagoras


Fielder W L pct. Pyth-W Pyth-L Pth-pct
5 Errant 37 19 0.661 36 20 0.649
7 Bingo's 29 27 0.518 30 26 0.532
3 whisltes 26 30 0.464 27 29 0.485
1 Cursed 23 33 0.411 22 34 0.400

Forster W L pct. Pyth-W Pyth-L Pth-pct
6 TriBonds 33 23 0.589 29 27 0.512
8 Highway 31 25 0.554 31 25 0.559
4 Wookies 24 32 0.429 23 33 0.410
2 Burnintr 21 35 0.375 26 30 0.461

So, what does this tell us? Almost everyone is dead-on with their Pythagorean projections except for two teams. One of them has 4 more wins than they should and one of them has 5 less than they should. Which of these two is probably more motivated to make a stink about it?

It was the classic "unfair" week of Scoresheet this week... 6 losses by a combined 7 runs. 1 win by 12 runs. It's not that I didn't have terrible relief pitching... I did... but in all those 1-run losses they all could have been won by a timely hit late in the game or in extra innings and those hits never came. Instead they ALL came in a meaningless blowout. The positive way to look at it is the team should come around. The negative is that it's already too late.


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